This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to GB.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

CeeDee Lamb · against GB

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

54%

Intermediate

30%

Deep (20+)

15%

Left side

39%

Middle

17%

Right side

43%

How GB defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

19th

Intermediate

13th

Deep (20+)

23rd

Left side

23rd

Middle

10th

Right side

21st

Yards after catch allowed

8th

Sack rate forced

14th

The read

1. Green Bay rank 23rd against deep balls, and 15% of Lamb's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
2. Work the right side: 43% of his targets go that way and Green Bay rank 21st defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Christian Watson · against DAL

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

41%

Intermediate

33%

Deep (20+)

26%

Left side

34%

Middle

28%

Right side

38%

How DAL defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

29th

Intermediate

30th

Deep (20+)

25th

Left side

32nd

Middle

32nd

Right side

23rd

Yards after catch allowed

28th

Sack rate forced

29th

The read

1. Dallas rank 25th against deep balls, and 26% of Watson's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
2. Work the middle: 28% of his targets go that way and Dallas rank 32nd defending throws there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 5th percentile for separation and 56th for hands, and Trikweze Bridges allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Jordan Love · against DAL

A pass defence to exploit

Profile

How DAL defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

29th

Intermediate

30th

Deep (20+)

25th

Left side

32nd

Middle

32nd

Right side

23rd

Yards after catch allowed

28th

Sack rate forced

29th

The read

1. Dallas rank 31st in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 30th against intermediate throws.
2. Pressure: Dallas are 29th at getting sacks, and Green Bay are 8th at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 5. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Cowboys have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

DAL offence

GB defence

OverallEPA per play

7th

11th

PassingEPA per dropback

8th

3rd

RushingEPA per carry

11th

25th

Third downconversion rate

4th

25th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

2nd

9th

Biggest gap: third down, where the Cowboys offence has a 21-place edge.

When the Packers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

GB offence

DAL defence

OverallEPA per play

18th

32nd

PassingEPA per dropback

13th

32nd

RushingEPA per carry

31st

22nd

Third downconversion rate

32nd

32nd

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

9th

29th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Packers offence has a 20-place edge.

Form and history

Cowboys this season

L20-28wk 1 at NYGW37-20wk 2 vs WASL31-34wk 3 vs BALW34-30wk 4 at HOUL16-24wk 5 vs TB

Packers this season

L22-39wk 1 at MINW20-17wk 2 at NYJL14-35wk 3 vs ATLW17-14wk 4 at TBW31-7wk 5 vs CHI

Last 3 meetingsDAL 0 · GB 3

40-40GB at DAL
2025-09

48-32GB at DAL
2024-01

28-31DAL at GB
2022-11

Injury report

Cowboysmodel impact 0.0

Malik DavisRB · Hip	IR
DJ RogersTE · Knee	IR
Princeton FantTE · Knee - ACL + MCL	IR
Devin MooreCB	IR
Jonathan BullardDE · Calf	IR
Marist LiufauLB · Forearm	IR
Kelvin GilliamDT · Triceps	IR
Matt HennessyOL · Neck	IR
P.J. LockeDB · Foot	IR
Jalen ThompsonDB · Hamstring	IR
Ameer SpeedCB · Knee	Questionable
DeMarvion OvershownLB · Hamstring	Questionable

Packersmodel impact 0.0

Javon HargraveDT · Achilles	Out
Jayden ReedWR · Neck	IR
Savion WilliamsWR	IR
Chris BrooksRB · Ankle	IR
Thomas YassminTE	IR
Luke MusgraveTE	PUP
Collin OliverDE	IR
Micah ParsonsLB · Knee - ACL	PUP
Edgerrin CooperLB · Achilles	IR
Zach Bako-BeweleOL · Knee	IR
Jordon RileyDL · Achilles	PUP
Warren BrinsonDL · Calf	IR

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.