The record
Every pick, published before kickoff, graded in public
Model140-8063.6% of picks right
Market favourite110-5666.3%
Brier score0.230lower is better, 0.250 is a coin flip
Published late0of 220 picks after kickoff
When we say 65%, does it happen 65% of the time?
Picks grouped by the model's confidence, 220 picks. Lines show the 95% range; the dashed diagonal is perfect calibration. (pick-side probability, Wilson 95% CI; all graded games 2025)
Where we disagreed with the market
Each 2025 game: the market's home-win chance across, the model's up. Green is a right pick, red a miss.
The pick ledger · 2025
The receipts
Each pick is graded from the last model run before its true kickoff, and every run is stored unchanged, so any row can be checked against the file we published at the time.