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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15SEA53%DENSun 14:30HOUJAX64%Sun 18:00BAL71%CLESun 18:00CAR57%PHISun 18:00CHI53%ATLSun 18:00NONYG60%Sun 18:00NYJNE82%Sun 18:00PIT51%TBSun 18:00TENIND70%Sun 21:05ARILA69%Sun 21:25BUF70%LVSun 21:25LACKC87%Mon 01:20DAL53%GBTue 01:15WASSF85%
Jaguars
won by 5
Final · week 4
22–17
at Paycor Stadium · Sun 4 Oct
Bengals
lost by 5

How the game swung

The Bengals' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 02:23: JAX score (3-0)Q2 10:07: CIN score (3-3)Q2 04:19: JAX score (6-3)Q2 01:27: JAX score (12-3)Q2 01:23: JAX score (13-3)Q3 08:48: CIN score (13-9)Q3 08:44: CIN score (13-10)Q3 03:05: JAX score (16-10)Q4 06:42: JAX score (22-10)Q4 03:33: CIN score (22-16)Q4 03:28: CIN score (22-17)12345CIN winning ↑JAX winning ↓
■ Bengals ahead■ Jaguars ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 0:56 - Cincinnati fourth down conversion by J.Burrow (-26% WPA) flipped the script.

1
Q2 2:00 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
J.Burrow EPA -6.2

(Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 81-D.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 2-J.Lewis [41-J.Hines-Allen] at JAX 37. 2-J.Lewis ran ob at CIN 18 for 45 yards (30-C.Brown).

+17%win chance to JAX
2
Q2 0:04 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
J.Burrow EPA -0.1

(:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown to JAX 45 for 9 yards (2-J.Lewis).

+4%win chance to CIN
3
Q4 14:16 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
J.Burrow EPA -5.0

(Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 82-M.Tinsley INTERCEPTED by 23-F.Oluokun at JAX 10. 23-F.Oluokun to JAX 15 for 5 yards (82-M.Tinsley).

+22%win chance to JAX
4
Q4 1:32 · Other · nobody saw this coming
J.Burrow EPA +1.0

(Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 81-D.Meyers to JAX 21 for 15 yards (50-B.Combs).

+13%win chance to CIN
5
Q4 0:56 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
J.Burrow EPA -2.3

(:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).

+26%win chance to JAX

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Defence won it

Cincinnati won it: Washington held to 7 yards on 3 targets, against his usual 58.

Profile
Targets3
Yards7
After the catch7
Yards on short throws100%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)5835%
Defence won it

Jacksonville won it: Chase held to 27 yards on 3 targets, against his usual 83.

Profile
Targets3
Yards27
After the catch15
Yards on short throws37%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)8271%
Even

Even: Burrow at +0.13 EPA a dropback, close to his usual +0.13.

Profile
epa db0.13194549428797991
dropbacks56
Expected (his usual)13%

Every drive

Jaguars drive left to right, Bengals right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 15 yds
Q1
Punt · 6 pl · 34 yds
Q1
FG · 8 pl · 59 yds
Q1
FG · 13 pl · 47 yds
Q2
FG · 11 pl · 83 yds
Q2
Turnover · 5 pl · 20 yds
Q2
TD · 4 pl · 24 yds
Q2
Half · 6 pl · 45 yds
Q3
TD · 12 pl · 62 yds
Q3
FG · 9 pl · 39 yds
Q3
Turnover · 8 pl · 74 yds
Q4
Punt · 4 pl · 20 yds
Q4
Punt · 5 pl · 18 yds
Q4
TD · 8 pl · 61 yds
Q4
TD · 9 pl · 66 yds
Q4
Punt · 6 pl · 24 yds
Q4
Downs · 7 pl · 71 yds
Q4
Half · 0 pl · 0 yds
JAX goal2040504020CIN goal

Side by side

325
Total yards
437
+0.19
EPA per play
+0.05
43%
Success rate
46%
17
First downs
25
4
Sacks taken
2
0
Turnovers
2
5/11
Third downs
5/12
Jaguars leaders
PassingT.Lawrence18/23 · 227 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
RushingB.Tuten17 car · 73 yds
ReceivingB.Strange7/8 · 95 yds
Bengals leaders
PassingJ.Burrow39/54 · 428 yds · 1 TD · 2 INT
RushingC.Brown9 car · 10 yds
ReceivingT.Higgins11/16 · 157 yds

Scoring

Q1 02:2339-C.Little 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.3-0
Q2 10:072-E.McPherson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.3-3
Q2 04:1939-C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.6-3
Q2 01:27(Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 7-Bri.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.12-3
Q2 01:2339-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.13-3
Q3 08:48(Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-29-E.Murray was injured during the play.13-9
Q3 08:442-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.13-10
Q3 03:0539-C.Little 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.16-10
Q4 06:42(Shotgun) 24-C.Rodriguez left guard for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.22-10
Q4 03:33(No Huddle) 9-J.Burrow right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.22-16
Q4 03:282-E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.22-17

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had JAX 62%, the market CIN 56%. It finished JAX 22, CIN 17.

Pick published 4 Oct, 10:11 UK, before kickoff.