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16Trevor Lawrence
Jacksonville Jaguars#165 yrs expClemson78 · 220 lbElite legs, less so sack avoidance
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified quarterback over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
92: elite creator
One number for how well Lawrence has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified quarterback; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 68 (#24 of 44).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Passing TDs over 1.5
Passing yards over 225.5
Rushing yards over 13.5
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | Rush yds | EPA | Over 225.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 5 |  PHI | 24 | 39 | 331 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 25 | +10.2 | Yes |
| 26 wk 4 |  CIN | 18 | 23 | 227 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +9.3 | Yes |
| 26 wk 3 |  NE | 19 | 29 | 182 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 25 | +7.6 | No |
| 26 wk 2 |  DEN | 17 | 29 | 189 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4.1 | No |
| 26 wk 1 |  CLE | 18 | 23 | 245 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +19.0 | Yes |
| 25 wk 18 |  TEN | 22 | 30 | 255 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | +10.2 | Yes |
| 25 wk 17 |  IND | 23 | 37 | 263 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 26 | +6.4 | Yes |
| 25 wk 16 | DEN | 23 | 36 | 279 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 20 | +9.2 | Yes |
| 25 wk 15 |  NYJ | 20 | 32 | 330 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 51 | +23.8 | Yes |
| 25 wk 14 | IND | 17 | 30 | 244 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | +11.4 | Yes |
| 25 wk 13 | TEN | 16 | 27 | 229 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 25 | +4.9 | Yes |
| 25 wk 12 |  ARI | 18 | 30 | 256 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 29 | -9.0 | Yes |
| 25 wk 11 |  LAC | 14 | 22 | 153 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | +2.4 | No |
| 25 wk 10 |  HOU | 13 | 23 | 158 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 35 | -7.3 | No |
| 25 wk 9 |  LV | 23 | 34 | 220 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | -0.8 | No |
| 25 wk 7 |  LA | 23 | 48 | 296 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 18 | -13.9 | Yes |
| 25 wk 6 |  SEA | 27 | 42 | 258 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9 | -0.4 | Yes |