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Eagles
won by 4
Final · week 2
2420
at Nissan Stadium · Sun 20 Sept
Titans
lost by 4

How the game swung

The Titans' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 04:28: TEN score (0-6)Q1 04:22: TEN score (0-7)Q2 12:53: PHI score (6-7)Q2 12:49: PHI score (7-7)Q2 01:55: PHI score (13-7)Q2 01:49: PHI score (14-7)Q2 00:03: TEN score (14-10)Q3 08:12: PHI score (17-10)Q3 01:03: TEN score (17-16)Q3 00:57: TEN score (17-17)Q4 02:00: TEN score (17-20)Q4 00:14: PHI score (23-20)Q4 00:09: PHI score (24-20)12345TEN winning ↑PHI winning ↓
Titans aheadEagles ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 0:14 - Philadelphia momentum-shifting play by J.Hurts (+37% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q1 6:11 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
J.Hurts EPA -9.2

(Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 37-A.Hooker at TEN -2. 37-A.Hooker to PHI 10 for 92 yards (9-M.Lemon).

+28%win chance to TEN
2
Q4 2:44 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
T.Spears EPA +3.3

(Shotgun) 2-T.Spears left end pushed ob at PHI 9 for 27 yards (58-J.Hunt). PHI-58-J.Hunt was injured during the play.

+19%win chance to TEN
3
Q4 1:48 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
J.Hurts EPA +1.6

(Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 13-D.Wicks to TEN 41 for 20 yards (26-M.Harris).

+17%win chance to PHI
4
Q4 0:14 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
J.Hurts EPA +2.3

(:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+37%win chance to PHI
5
Q4 0:04 · Other · nobody saw this coming
C.Ward EPA -0.3

(:04) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short middle.

+13%win chance to PHI

Every drive

Eagles drive left to right, Titans right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Punt · 3 pl · -1 yds
Q1
Turnover · 15 pl · 59 yds
Q1
TD · 4 pl · 10 yds
Q1
TD · 11 pl · 65 yds
Q2
Punt · 6 pl · 31 yds
Q2
TD · 14 pl · 86 yds
Q2
FG · 7 pl · 56 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds
Q3
FG · 6 pl · 16 yds
Q3
TD · 12 pl · 69 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q3
Punt · 5 pl · 21 yds
Q4
Turnover · 11 pl · 46 yds
Q4
FG · 9 pl · 84 yds
Q4
TD · 9 pl · 65 yds
Q4
Half · 2 pl · 15 yds
PHI goal2040504020TEN goal

Side by side

341
Total yards
291
+0.04
EPA per play
+0.07
40%
Success rate
43%
21
First downs
14
3
Sacks taken
2
2
Turnovers
0
11/18
Third downs
6/13
Eagles leaders
PassingJ.Hurts26/37 · 264 yds · 2 TD · 2 INT
RushingT.Bigsby13 car · 33 yds
ReceivingD.Smith10/13 · 117 yds
Titans leaders
PassingC.Ward13/20 · 183 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
RushingT.Pollard14 car · 64 yds
ReceivingE.Ayomanor2/3 · 69 yds

Scoring

Q1 04:281-C.Ward up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.0-6
Q1 04:226-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.0-7
Q2 12:538-T.Bigsby up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-7
Q2 12:494-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.7-7
Q2 01:55(Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.13-7
Q2 01:494-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.14-7
Q2 00:03(:03) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.14-10
Q3 08:124-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.17-10
Q3 01:031-C.Ward scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.17-16
Q3 00:576-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.17-17
Q4 02:006-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend. PHI-98-J.Carter was injured during the play.17-20
Q4 00:14(:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.23-20
Q4 00:094-J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.24-20

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had PHI 58%, the market PHI 73%. It finished PHI 24, TEN 20.

Pick published 20 Sept, 16:01 UK, before kickoff.