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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15SEA53%DENSun 14:30HOUJAX64%Sun 18:00BAL71%CLESun 18:00CAR57%PHISun 18:00CHI53%ATLSun 18:00NONYG60%Sun 18:00NYJNE82%Sun 18:00PIT51%TBSun 18:00TENIND70%Sun 21:05ARILA69%Sun 21:25BUF70%LVSun 21:25LACKC87%Mon 01:20DAL53%GBTue 01:15WASSF85%
Cowboys
won by 4
Final · week 4
34–30
at Reliant Stadium · Sun 4 Oct
Texans
lost by 4

How the game swung

The Texans' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 10:06: HOU score (0-6)Q1 10:01: HOU score (0-7)Q1 05:13: DAL score (3-7)Q1 01:53: HOU score (3-10)Q2 12:34: DAL score (6-10)Q2 02:08: HOU score (6-13)Q2 00:02: HOU score (6-16)Q3 13:00: DAL score (12-16)Q3 12:55: DAL score (13-16)Q3 10:57: HOU score (13-22)Q3 10:50: HOU score (13-23)Q3 06:54: DAL score (19-23)Q3 06:49: DAL score (20-23)Q4 11:20: DAL score (26-23)Q4 11:17: DAL score (27-23)Q4 02:26: HOU score (27-29)Q4 02:23: HOU score (27-30)Q4 00:43: DAL score (33-30)Q4 00:40: DAL score (34-30)12345HOU winning ↑DAL winning ↓
■ Texans ahead■ Cowboys ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 0:43 - Dallas momentum-shifting play by D.Prescott (+29% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q4 4:11 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
C.Stroud EPA +1.4

(Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 13-J.Noel to DAL 23 for 22 yards (13-C.Downs).

+17%win chance to HOU
2
Q4 2:34 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
C.Stroud EPA +2.9

(Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to DAL 25 for 2 yards. Lateral to 32-D.Montgomery pushed ob at DAL 6 for 19 yards (53-D.Winters; 23-A.Speed).

+24%win chance to HOU
3
Q4 1:12 · Other · nobody saw this coming
D.Prescott EPA +1.4

(Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 46 for 15 yards (5-J.Pitre).

+14%win chance to DAL
4
Q4 0:43 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
D.Prescott EPA +3.4

(:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+29%win chance to DAL
5
Q4 0:09 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
C.Stroud EPA -0.7

(:09) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right (24-M.Hooker).

+15%win chance to DAL

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

CeeDee Lamb won it

Lamb won it: 189 yards on 21 targets, against his usual 88.

Profile
Targets21
Yards189
After the catch70
Yards on short throws56%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)45%
Defence won it

Dallas won it: Schultz held to 28 yards on 2 targets, against his usual 52.

Profile
Targets2
Yards28
After the catch5
Yards on short throws100%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)5212%
C.J. Stroud won it

Stroud won it: +0.48 EPA a dropback, above his usual +0.07.

Profile
epa db0.482339059536411
dropbacks31
Expected (his usual)7%

Every drive

Cowboys drive left to right, Texans right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
TD · 8 pl · 85 yds
Q1
FG · 9 pl · 44 yds
Q1
FG · 5 pl · 69 yds
Q1
FG · 7 pl · 26 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 10 yds
Q2
Punt · 6 pl · 4 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 3 yds
Q2
Missed FG · 6 pl · 20 yds
Q2
FG · 5 pl · 28 yds
Q2
Missed FG · 6 pl · 27 yds
Q2
FG · 2 pl · 9 yds
Q3
TD · 4 pl · 49 yds
Q3
TD · 4 pl · 38 yds
Q3
TD · 7 pl · 55 yds
Q3
Punt · 4 pl · 22 yds
Q3
TD · 14 pl · 96 yds
Q4
Punt · 4 pl · 17 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds
Q4
TD · 9 pl · 97 yds
Q4
TD · 11 pl · 74 yds
Q4
Half · 3 pl · 19 yds
DAL goal2040504020HOU goal

Side by side

399
Total yards
397
+0.14
EPA per play
+0.24
44%
Success rate
48%
25
First downs
16
3
Sacks taken
2
0
Turnovers
0
5/14
Third downs
3/9
Cowboys leaders
PassingD.Prescott32/45 · 335 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
RushingJ.Williams19 car · 62 yds
ReceivingC.Lamb17/21 · 189 yds
Texans leaders
PassingC.Stroud21/31 · 347 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
RushingD.Montgomery10 car · 24 yds
ReceivingN.Collins7/8 · 118 yds

Scoring

Q1 10:06(Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.0-6
Q1 10:0115-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.0-7
Q1 05:1317-B.Aubrey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.3-7
Q1 01:5315-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.3-10
Q2 12:3417-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.6-10
Q2 02:0815-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.6-13
Q2 00:02(:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.6-16
Q3 13:00(Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.12-16
Q3 12:5517-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.13-16
Q3 10:57(Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-27-R.Steward, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced be13-22
Q3 10:5015-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.13-23
Q3 06:5433-J.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-95-J.Crumedy was injured during the play.19-23
Q3 06:4917-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.20-23
Q4 11:2033-J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.26-23
Q4 11:1717-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PENALTY on HOU-72-T.Togiai, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced between downs.27-23
Q4 02:26(Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.27-29
Q4 02:2315-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.27-30
Q4 00:43(:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.33-30
Q4 00:4017-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. ** Injury Update: HOU-95-J.Crumedy has returned to the game.34-30

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had DAL 53%, the market HOU 57%. It finished DAL 34, HOU 30.

Pick published 4 Oct, 10:11 UK, before kickoff.