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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15WASNYG66%Sun 14:30NEDET56%Sun 18:00BUF69%NYJSun 18:00CAR55%NOSun 18:00HOU67%CLESun 18:00JAX77%TENSun 18:00KC75%ATLSun 18:00MIAIND54%Sun 18:00MINGB80%Sun 21:05LA74%ARISun 21:05SEA68%LVSun 21:25SF66%DALMon 01:20PITCIN66%Tue 01:15LACBAL59%
Commanders
lost by 17
Final · week 2
20–37
at AT&T Stadium · Sun 20 Sept
Cowboys
won by 17

How the game swung

The Cowboys' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 10:04: DAL score (0-6)Q1 10:01: DAL score (0-7)Q1 05:04: DAL score (0-10)Q2 13:22: WAS score (3-10)Q2 09:59: DAL score (3-16)Q2 09:55: DAL score (3-17)Q2 06:40: WAS score (9-17)Q2 06:37: WAS score (10-17)Q3 12:55: WAS score (13-17)Q3 07:24: DAL score (13-20)Q3 06:37: DAL score (13-26)Q3 06:32: DAL score (13-27)Q4 13:27: DAL score (13-30)Q4 09:09: WAS score (19-30)Q4 09:03: WAS score (20-30)Q4 03:13: DAL score (20-36)Q4 03:07: DAL score (20-37)12DAL winning ↑WAS winning ↓
■ Cowboys ahead■ Commanders ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The plays that decided it

Q2 0:03 - Washington key play by J.Daniels (-13% WPA) flipped the script.

1
Q2 0:03 · Other · nobody saw this coming
J.Daniels EPA -3.7

(:03) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right [90-J.Bullard]. WAS-5-J.Daniels was injured during the play.

+13%win chance to DAL
2
Q3 7:15 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
M.Mariota EPA -5.9

8-M.Mariota pass short left to 6-D.Brown to WAS 18 for -6 yards (55-J.Barham). FUMBLES (55-J.Barham), RECOVERED by DAL-53-D.Winters at WAS 18. 53-D.Winters ran ob at WAS 13 for 5 yards.

+13%win chance to DAL

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Even

Even: McLaurin had 50 yards on 9 targets, close to his usual 57.

Profile
Targets9
Yards50
After the catch24
Yards on short throws52%
deep share of yards48%
Expected (his usual)35%
Even

Even: Lamb had 153 yards on 9 targets, close to his usual 84.

Profile
Targets9
Yards153
After the catch28
Yards on short throws12%
deep share of yards54%
Expected (his usual)34%
Even

Even: Daniels at +0.01 EPA a dropback, close to his usual +0.01.

Profile
epa db0.010550812010091344
dropbacks17
Expected (his usual)1%

Every drive

Commanders drive left to right, Cowboys right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
TD · 10 pl · 66 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 7 yds
Q1
FG · 7 pl · 53 yds
Q1
FG · 12 pl · 95 yds
Q2
TD · 7 pl · 56 yds
Q2
TD · 8 pl · 59 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · -4 yds
Q2
Half · 15 pl · 64 yds
Q3
FG · 5 pl · 31 yds
Q3
FG · 8 pl · 38 yds
Q3
Turnover · 1 pl · -6 yds
Q3
TD · 2 pl · 13 yds
Q3
Missed FG · 8 pl · 42 yds
Q3
FG · 6 pl · 17 yds
Q4
TD · 10 pl · 73 yds
Q4
TD · 11 pl · 93 yds
Q4
Half · 5 pl · 24 yds
WAS goal2040504020DAL goal

Side by side

389
Total yards
332
+0.07
EPA per play
+0.23
51%
Success rate
56%
22
First downs
19
0
Sacks taken
2
1
Turnovers
0
8/14
Third downs
7/11
Commanders leaders
PassingJ.Daniels11/17 · 96 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
RushingJ.Daniels7 car · 69 yds
ReceivingT.McLaurin2/9 · 50 yds
Cowboys leaders
PassingD.Prescott26/31 · 279 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT
RushingJ.Williams12 car · 30 yds
ReceivingC.Lamb8/9 · 153 yds

Scoring

Q1 10:044-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.0-6
Q1 10:0117-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.0-7
Q1 05:0417-B.Aubrey 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.0-10
Q2 13:2219-D.Stevens 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.3-10
Q2 09:59(Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.3-16
Q2 09:5517-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.3-17
Q2 06:40(No Huddle) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 3-S.Diggs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9-17
Q2 06:3719-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.10-17
Q3 12:5519-D.Stevens 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.13-17
Q3 07:2417-B.Aubrey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.13-20
Q3 06:37(Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.13-26
Q3 06:3217-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.13-27
Q4 13:2717-B.Aubrey 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.13-30
Q4 09:09(Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 3-S.Diggs for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-O.Ogbonnia].19-30
Q4 09:0319-D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.20-30
Q4 03:13(Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.20-36
Q4 03:0717-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.20-37

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had DAL 61%, the market DAL 66%. It finished WAS 20, DAL 37.

Pick published 20 Sept, 16:01 UK, before kickoff.