Packers at Buccaneers: week 4

Packers

won by 3

Final · week 4

17–14

at Raymond James Stadium · Sun 4 Oct

Buccaneers

lost by 3

How the game swung

The Buccaneers' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Buccaneers ahead■ Packers ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 4:26 - Green Bay turnover by J.Love (-21% WPA) sealed it.

Q2 12:58 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

J.Love EPA +3.9

(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+12%win chance to GB

Q2 0:41 · Turnover

J.Daniels EPA -3.9

(:41) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left intended for 19-K.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 56-E.Cooper at GB 38. 56-E.Cooper pushed ob at TB 44 for 18 yards (10-J.Daniels).

+13%win chance to GB

Q4 9:13 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming

K.Johnson EPA -5.9

(Shotgun) 26-K.Johnson up the middle to TB 3 for no gain (23-T.Smith). FUMBLES (23-T.Smith), touched at TB 3, RECOVERED by TB-27-Z.McCollum at TB 4.

+19%win chance to TB

Q4 4:26 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming

J.Love EPA -3.9

(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Parrish at TB 7. 25-J.Parrish to TB 15 for 8 yards (85-T.Kraft).

+21%win chance to TB

Q4 1:34 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

J.Daniels EPA -0.5

(Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 17-T.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon [33-E.Williams] at GB 43. 25-K.Nixon to GB 43 for no gain (17-T.Hurst). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass incomplete short midd

+20%win chance to GB

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Even

Even: Watson had 47 yards on 3 targets, close to his usual 63.

Profile

Targets3

Yards47

After the catch24

Yards on short throws62%

deep share of yards0%

Expected (his usual)6265%

Defence won it

Green Bay won it: Egbuka held to 13 yards on 4 targets, against his usual 53.

Profile

Targets4

Yards13

After the catch22

Yards on short throws100%

deep share of yards0%

Expected (his usual)5282%

Every drive

Packers drive left to right, Buccaneers right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 27 yds

Turnover · 6 pl · 37 yds

TD · 16 pl · 66 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 3 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds

TD · 9 pl · 54 yds

Punt · 4 pl · 15 yds

Turnover · 9 pl · 39 yds

FG · 2 pl · 4 yds

TD · 8 pl · 80 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -1 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 13 yds

TD · 12 pl · 89 yds

Turnover · 9 pl · 74 yds

Punt · 6 pl · 8 yds

Turnover · 2 pl · 12 yds

Downs · 10 pl · 38 yds

Half · 0 pl · 0 yds

GB goal2040504020TB goal

Side by side

295

Total yards

275

+0.02

EPA per play

-0.04

46%

Success rate

44%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

2/9

Third downs

5/12

Packers leaders

PassingJ.Love22/30 · 197 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT

RushingK.Johnson8 car · 42 yds

ReceivingC.Watson3/3 · 47 yds

Buccaneers leaders

PassingJ.Daniels19/27 · 148 yds · 1 TD · 2 INT

RushingB.Irving16 car · 61 yds

ReceivingC.Otton4/6 · 37 yds

Scoring

Q2 12:58	(Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	6-0
Q2 12:54	28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.	7-0
Q2 05:17	44-S.Tucker left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	7-6
Q2 05:13	4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.	7-7
Q2 00:02	(:02) 28-T.Smack 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.	10-7
Q3 10:39	10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Kraft (23-T.Smith). Green Bay challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-J.Lov	16-7
Q3 10:32	28-T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.	17-7
Q4 14:57	(Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	17-13
Q4 14:49	4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.	17-14

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had TB 51%, the market GB 60%. It finished GB 17, TB 14.

Tampa Bay ranks #5 in turnovers (4.3%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 4 Oct, 10:11 UK, before kickoff.