CHI look like the play here.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Garrett Wilson · against CHI

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

63%

Intermediate

24%

Deep (20+)

13%

Left side

39%

Middle

22%

Right side

39%

How CHI defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

15th

Intermediate

3rd

Deep (20+)

23rd

Left side

7th

Middle

25th

Right side

7th

Yards after catch allowed

10th

Sack rate forced

17th

The read

1. Chicago rank 23rd against deep balls, and 13% of Wilson's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
2. Don't force short throws: they've been Wilson's worst return (-0.01 EPA a target), and Chicago are 15th there.
3. Work the middle: 22% of his targets go that way and Chicago rank 25th defending throws there.
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Rome Odunze · against NYJ

Best way in: deep balls

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

40%

Intermediate

32%

Deep (20+)

28%

Left side

25%

Middle

22%

Right side

53%

How NYJ defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

31st

Intermediate

23rd

Deep (20+)

17th

Left side

29th

Middle

15th

Right side

32nd

Yards after catch allowed

29th

Sack rate forced

31st

The read

1. the Jets rank 17th against deep balls, which make up 28% of Odunze's targets.
2. Work the right side: 53% of his targets go that way and the Jets rank 32nd defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 3. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Jets have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

NYJ offence

CHI defence

OverallEPA per play

12th

10th

PassingEPA per dropback

10th

8th

RushingEPA per carry

26th

25th

Third downconversion rate

19th

3rd

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

22nd

10th

Biggest gap: third down, where the Bears defence has a 16-place edge.

When the Bears have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

CHI offence

NYJ defence

OverallEPA per play

8th

13th

PassingEPA per dropback

9th

17th

RushingEPA per carry

7th

11th

Third downconversion rate

6th

5th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

12th

8th

Biggest gap: passing, where the Bears offence has a 8-place edge.

Only 3 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Jets this season

W23-10wk 1 at TENL17-20wk 2 vs GBL24-31wk 3 at DET

Bears this season

W59-37wk 1 at CARL3-9wk 2 vs MINW27-7wk 3 vs PHI

Last 1 meetingsNYJ 1 · CHI 0

10-31CHI at NYJ
2022-11

Injury report

Jetsmodel impact 0.0

Tim PatrickWR · Groin	IR
Arian SmithWR · Knee	IR
Omar CooperWR · Ankle	IR
Tre BrownCB	IR
Tyler BaronDE · Knee	PUP
Marcelino McCrary-BallLB · Ankle	IR
Kingsley JonathanDT · Thigh	IR
David OnyemataDT · Groin	IR
VJ PayneDB	IR
Anez CooperG · Shoulder	IR
Adonai MitchellWR · Finger	Questionable
Kene NwangwuRB · Back	Questionable

Bearsmodel impact 0.0

Anthony JohnsonDB	Out
Brittain BrownRB	IR
Nikola KalinicTE · Knee	IR
Hayden LargeTE	IR
Shemar TurnerDE · Knee - ACL	PUP
Tony FieldsLB	IR
Noah SewellLB · Achilles	PUP
Nephi SewellLB · Concussion	IR
Kyler GordonDB	PUP
Coby BryantDB · Knee	IR
Caleb WilliamsQB · Hamstring	Doubtful
Cam LewisCB · Leg	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.