Jets at Bears: week 4 | Fourth and Data

Jets

lost by 11

Final · week 4

12–23

at Soldier Field · Sun 4 Oct

Bears

won by 11

How the game swung

The Bears' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Bears ahead■ Jets ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q2 11:52 - Chicago turnover by T.Bagent (-13% WPA) flipped the script.

Q1 9:14 · Fourth down

D.Swift EPA -3.6

4-D.Swift left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Swift left guard to NYJ 1 for no gain (21-B.Stephens).

+8%win chance to NYJ

Q1 2:56 · Fourth down

D.Swift EPA +2.2

4-D.Swift right end to NYJ 8 for 13 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

+8%win chance to CHI

Q1 0:27 · Fourth down

K.Monangai EPA +2.2

(:27) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

+7%win chance to CHI

Q2 11:52 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming

T.Bagent EPA -5.8

17-T.Bagent pass deep middle intended for 84-C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Fitzpatrick at NYJ 39. 29-M.Fitzpatrick ran ob at CHI 34 for 27 yards (87-S.Roush).

+13%win chance to NYJ

Q3 8:52 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming

D.Swift EPA -5.2

(Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left guard to CHI 28 for no gain (44-J.Sherwood). FUMBLES (44-J.Sherwood), RECOVERED by NYJ-21-B.Stephens at CHI 28. 21-B.Stephens ran ob at CHI 28 for no gain.

+9%win chance to NYJ

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Defence won it

Chicago won it: Wilson held to 27 yards on 4 targets, against his usual 61.

Profile

Targets4

Yards27

After the catch2

Yards on short throws48%

deep share of yards0%

Expected (his usual)22%

Rome Odunze won it

Odunze won it: 94 yards on 7 targets, above his usual 50.

Profile

Targets7

Yards94

After the catch32

Yards on short throws17%

deep share of yards39%

Expected (his usual)4965%

Every drive

Jets drive left to right, Bears right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Downs · 14 pl · 78 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 9 yds

TD · 12 pl · 67 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 3 yds

Turnover · 3 pl · 12 yds

FG · 5 pl · 16 yds

FG · 10 pl · 54 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds

FG · 10 pl · 63 yds

Punt · 7 pl · 24 yds

Turnover · 3 pl · 24 yds

FG · 4 pl · 21 yds

TD · 9 pl · 57 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds

FG · 10 pl · 77 yds

TD · 2 pl · 72 yds

Half · 15 pl · 63 yds

NYJ goal2040504020CHI goal

Side by side

157

Total yards

495

-0.14

EPA per play

+0.06

41%

Success rate

55%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

0/7

Third downs

7/14

Jets leaders

PassingG.Smith8/15 · 119 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT

RushingB.Allen14 car · 59 yds

ReceivingI.Williams2/3 · 73 yds

Bears leaders

PassingT.Bagent25/34 · 268 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT

RushingK.Monangai30 car · 146 yds

ReceivingR.Odunze6/7 · 94 yds

Scoring

Q1 00:27	(:27) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	0-6
Q1 00:23	8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.	0-7
Q2 08:20	19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.	3-7
Q2 02:32	8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.	3-10
Q2 00:02	(:02) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.	3-13
Q3 07:05	19-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.	6-13
Q3 02:29	25-K.Monangai right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	6-19
Q3 02:26	8-C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.	6-20
Q4 10:04	8-C.Santos 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.	6-23
Q4 09:25	(Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 18-I.Williams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-J.van den Berg].	12-23

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had CHI 66%, the market CHI 62%. It finished NYJ 12, CHI 23.

Pick published 4 Oct, 10:11 UK, before kickoff.