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BUF look like a strong play here. BUF have been rolling at home, winning 3 of their last 3.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How BUF defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Buffalo rank 22nd against intermediate throws, which make up 37% of Doubs's targets.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 13th percentile for separation and 25th for hands, and Christian Benford, Taron Johnson and Tre'Davious White all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How NE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- New England rank 18th against intermediate throws, which make up 14% of Shakir's targets.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How NE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- New England rank 4th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is intermediate throws (18th).
- Pressure: New England are 24th at getting sacks, and Buffalo are 23rd at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 3. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Patriots have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)NE offenceBUF defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Bills defence has a 20-place edge.
When the Bills have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)BUF offenceNE defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Bills offence has a 27-place edge.
Only 3 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Patriots this seasonBills this season35-31BUF at NE2025-12
23-20NE at BUF2025-10
16-23BUF at NE2025-01
21-24NE at BUF2024-12
21-27NE at BUF2023-12
Injury report
Patriotsmodel impact 0.0| A.J. BrownWR · Ankle | IR |
| Jeremiah WebbWR · Arm | IR |
| Myles MontgomeryRB | IR |
| Julian HillTE · Knee | IR |
| Quintayvious HutchinsDE · Knee | IR |
| Khalil JacobsLB | IR |
| Harold LandryLB | PUP |
| Mike OnwenuOL · Ankle | IR |
| Marcus BryantOL · Ankle | IR |
| Bryce BaringerP | IR |
| Greg Van RotenOG · Thigh | IR |
| Dell PettusDB · Ankle | IR |
Billsmodel impact 0.0| Tyrell ShaversWR · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Dorian StrongCB · Neck | PUP |
| Zane DurantDT | IR |
| Jordan HancockDB · Hamstring | IR |
| T.J. SandersDL · Appendix | Doubtful |
| Josh AllenQB · Knee | Questionable |
| Christian BenfordDB · Toe | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
| Player | Market | Line | Price | Market over | Last 10 games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeNErole up | Passing yards | 229.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 30% | |
| Josh AllenBUF | Passing yards | 240.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | |
| Drake MayeNE | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 2.25 | 42% | 20% | |
| Josh AllenBUFrole up | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.62 | 58% | 60% | |
| Drake MayeNErole up | Rushing yards | 27.5 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% | |
| James CookBUFrole up | Rushing yards | 88.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 40% | |
| Josh AllenBUF | Rushing yards | 31.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 60% | |
| Rhamondre StevensonNErole up | Rushing yards | 31.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 60% | |
| TreVeyon HendersonNE | Rushing yards | 41.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 25% | |
| Dalton KincaidBUF | Receiving yards | 54.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 0% | |
| DeMario DouglasNE | Receiving yards | 27.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 70% | |
| DJ MooreBUF | Receiving yards | 46.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 80% | |
| Hunter HenryNErole up | Receiving yards | 31.5 | 1.91 | 49% | 70% | |
| James CookBUFrole up | Receiving yards | 6.5 | 1.81 | 52% | 70% | |
| Keon ColemanBUFrole up | Receiving yards | 13.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 70% | |
| Khalil ShakirBUF | Receiving yards | 37.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 70% | |
| Mack HollinsNErole up | Receiving yards | 43.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 20% | |
| Rhamondre StevensonNErole up | Receiving yards | 18.5 | 1.92 | 49% | 20% | |
| Romeo DoubsNE | Receiving yards | 38.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 60% | |
| TreVeyon HendersonNE | Receiving yards | 7.5 | 1.91 | 50% | 75% | |
| Ty JohnsonBUFrole up | Receiving yards | 12.5 | 1.87 | 51% | 30% | |
| Dalton KincaidBUF | Receptions | 4.5 | 1.93 | 49% | 0% | |
| DeMario DouglasNE | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.81 | 52% | 90% | |
| DJ MooreBUF | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.73 | 55% | 80% | |
| Hunter HenryNErole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.03 | 46% | 80% | |
| James CookBUF | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.03 | 46% | 50% | |
| Keon ColemanBUFrole up | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.98 | 48% | 40% | |
| Khalil ShakirBUF | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.70 | 55% | 80% | |
| Mack HollinsNErole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 1.88 | 50% | 10% | |
| Rhamondre StevensonNErole up | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.78 | 53% | 40% | |
| Romeo DoubsNErole up | Receptions | 3.5 | 2.30 | 41% | 30% | |
| TreVeyon HendersonNE | Receptions | 1.5 | 2.28 | 41% | 75% | |
| Ty JohnsonBUF | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.71 | 55% | 30% |
"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors BUF (76%) by 8.7 points.