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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15SEA53%DENSun 14:30HOUJAX64%Sun 18:00BAL71%CLESun 18:00CAR57%PHISun 18:00CHI53%ATLSun 18:00NONYG60%Sun 18:00NYJNE82%Sun 18:00PIT51%TBSun 18:00TENIND70%Sun 21:05ARILA69%Sun 21:25BUF70%LVSun 21:25LACKC87%Mon 01:20DAL53%GBTue 01:15WASSF85%
Patriots
won by 3
Final · week 4
29–26
at Highmark Stadium · Sun 4 Oct
Bills
lost by 3

How the game swung

The Bills' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 07:06: NE score (6-0)Q1 07:01: NE score (7-0)Q2 14:21: BUF score (7-6)Q2 14:15: BUF score (7-7)Q2 05:41: NE score (13-7)Q2 05:38: NE score (14-7)Q2 01:03: BUF score (14-13)Q2 01:00: BUF score (14-14)Q2 00:05: BUF score (14-17)Q3 08:18: NE score (20-17)Q3 08:15: NE score (21-17)Q4 11:11: BUF score (21-20)Q4 04:33: BUF score (21-26)Q4 01:55: NE score (27-26)Q4 01:50: NE score (29-26)12345BUF winning ↑NE winning ↓
■ Bills ahead■ Patriots ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q4 1:14 - Buffalo turnover by J.Allen (-27% WPA) sealed it.

1
Q2 0:16 · Turnover
D.Maye EPA -3.1

(:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Alford at NE 46. 23-D.Alford to NE 9 for 37 yards (55-J.Wilson).

+20%win chance to BUF
2
Q4 13:26 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
J.Allen EPA +2.8

(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman to NE 20 for 22 yards (28-K.Vildor).

+16%win chance to BUF
3
Q4 4:33 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
J.Allen EPA +3.5

(No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 0-K.Coleman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+15%win chance to BUF
4
Q4 1:55 · Big play · nobody saw this coming
D.Maye EPA +3.5

(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+19%win chance to NE
5
Q4 1:14 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
J.Allen EPA -1.7

(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (5-J.Palmer).

+27%win chance to NE

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Romeo Doubs won it

Doubs won it: 58 yards on 9 targets, above his usual 45.

Profile
Targets9
Yards58
After the catch0
Yards on short throws29%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)4547%
Khalil Shakir won it

Shakir won it: 82 yards on 8 targets, above his usual 41.

Profile
Targets8
Yards82
After the catch57
Yards on short throws38%
deep share of yards62%
Expected (his usual)4082%
Even

Even: Allen at +0.08 EPA a dropback, close to his usual +0.17.

Profile
epa db0.07780841188724374
dropbacks35
Expected (his usual)17%

Every drive

Patriots drive left to right, Bills right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds
Q1
TD · 12 pl · 97 yds
Q1
TD · 13 pl · 69 yds
Q2
Turnover · 8 pl · 30 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 7 yds
Q2
TD · 6 pl · 63 yds
Q2
TD · 9 pl · 67 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds
Q2
Turnover · 2 pl · 30 yds
Q2
Turnover · 1 pl · 0 yds
Q2
FG · 0 pl · 0 yds
Q2
Half · 0 pl · 0 yds
Q3
TD · 14 pl · 73 yds
Q3
Punt · 4 pl · 5 yds
Q3
Punt · 6 pl · 23 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 6 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds
Q3
FG · 9 pl · 60 yds
Q4
Punt · 6 pl · 26 yds
Q4
TD · 6 pl · 80 yds
Q4
TD · 9 pl · 75 yds
Q4
Turnover · 3 pl · 11 yds
Q4
Half · 4 pl · 14 yds
NE goal2040504020BUF goal

Side by side

409
Total yards
340
+0.19
EPA per play
+0.10
51%
Success rate
40%
25
First downs
16
1
Sacks taken
1
2
Turnovers
2
5/11
Third downs
6/12
Patriots leaders
PassingD.Maye22/37 · 269 yds · 3 TD · 1 INT
RushingD.Maye8 car · 54 yds
ReceivingH.Henry5/5 · 62 yds
Bills leaders
PassingJ.Allen23/33 · 253 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
RushingJ.Cook12 car · 75 yds
ReceivingK.Coleman6/7 · 116 yds

Scoring

Q1 07:06(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [15-G.Rousseau].6-0
Q1 07:018-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.7-0
Q2 14:21(Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.7-6
Q2 14:1516-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.7-7
Q2 05:4174-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NE-44-R.Gilliam has returned to the game.13-7
Q2 05:388-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.14-7
Q2 01:0317-J.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.14-13
Q2 01:0016-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.14-14
Q2 00:05(:05) 16-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.14-17
Q3 08:1874-C.Lomu reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.20-17
Q3 08:158-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.21-17
Q4 11:1116-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.21-20
Q4 04:33(No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 0-K.Coleman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.21-26
Q4 01:55(Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 86-E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.27-26
Q4 01:50TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-D.Maye pass to 38-R.Stevenson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.29-26

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had BUF 78%, the market BUF 72%. It finished NE 29, BUF 26.

New England ranks #2 in turnovers (7.2%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 4 Oct, 10:11 UK, before kickoff.