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18Caleb Williams
Chicago Bears#182 yrs expUSC; Oklahoma73 · 226 lbElite sack avoidance, weak accuracy
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified quarterback over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
83: high-end starter
One number for how well Williams has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified quarterback; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 65 (#26 of 44).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Passing TDs over 1.5
Passing yards over 219.5
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | Rush yds | EPA | Over 219.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 2 |  MIN | 15 | 26 | 138 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42 | -1.0 | No |
| 26 wk 1 |  CAR | 21 | 29 | 269 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 65 | +18.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 18 |  DET | 20 | 33 | 212 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1.4 | No |
| 25 wk 17 |  SF | 25 | 42 | 330 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | +17.9 | Yes |
| 25 wk 16 |  GB | 19 | 34 | 250 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 30 | +5.7 | Yes |
| 25 wk 15 |  CLE | 17 | 28 | 242 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | +3.3 | Yes |
| 25 wk 14 | GB | 19 | 35 | 186 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | -0.2 | No |
| 25 wk 13 |  PHI | 17 | 36 | 154 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | -6.0 | No |
| 25 wk 12 |  PIT | 19 | 35 | 239 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 21 | +0.5 | Yes |
| 25 wk 11 | MIN | 16 | 32 | 193 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | -0.9 | No |
| 25 wk 10 |  NYG | 20 | 36 | 220 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 63 | -6.1 | Yes |
| 25 wk 9 |  CIN | 20 | 34 | 280 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 53 | +14.0 | Yes |
| 25 wk 8 |  BAL | 25 | 38 | 285 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | +1.1 | Yes |
| 25 wk 7 |  NO | 15 | 26 | 172 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | +2.1 | No |
| 25 wk 6 |  WAS | 17 | 29 | 252 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +3.3 | Yes |
| 25 wk 4 |  LV | 22 | 37 | 212 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | -1.1 | No |
| 25 wk 3 |  DAL | 19 | 28 | 298 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | +18.0 | Yes |