Steelers at Patriots: week 2

Steelers

lost by 17

Final · week 2

3–20

at Gillette Stadium · Sun 20 Sept

Patriots

won by 17

How the game swung

The Patriots' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Patriots ahead■ Steelers ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q1 11:32 - New England turnover by D.Maye (-12% WPA) flipped the script.

Q1 11:32 · Turnover

D.Maye EPA -4.2

10-D.Maye pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to PIT 31 for 3 yards (51-N.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-N.Herbig), RECOVERED by PIT-41-P.Wilson at PIT 31. PENALTY on PIT-5-J.Ramsey, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 31.

+12%win chance to PIT

Q2 12:12 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

P.Freiermuth EPA +2.1

Direct snap to 88-P.Freiermuth. 88-P.Freiermuth up the middle to PIT 41 for 2 yards (14-R.Spillane).

+4%win chance to PIT

Q3 12:59 · Turnover

D.Maye EPA -4.1

10-D.Maye pass deep left intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 6-P.Queen at PIT 10. 6-P.Queen to PIT 13 for 3 yards (85-H.Henry).

+9%win chance to PIT

Q4 13:46 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming

A.Rodgers EPA -7.4

(Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 21 for -9 yards (90-C.Barmore). FUMBLES (90-C.Barmore) [90-C.Barmore], RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at PIT 19. 91-E.Ponder for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+10%win chance to NE

Q4 5:16 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming

A.Rodgers EPA -4.8

(Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right intended for 17-G.Bernard INTERCEPTED by 50-G.Jacas (22-C.Woods) at NE 21. 50-G.Jacas to NE 32 for 11 yards (8-A.Rodgers).

+1%win chance to NE

Every drive

Steelers drive left to right, Patriots right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Punt · 3 pl · 3 yds

Turnover · 4 pl · 46 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds

TD · 4 pl · 45 yds

Missed FG · 7 pl · 35 yds

FG · 8 pl · 46 yds

Punt · 12 pl · 40 yds

Punt · 4 pl · 14 yds

Punt · 7 pl · 22 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds

FG · 5 pl · 22 yds

Turnover · 4 pl · 34 yds

Punt · 7 pl · 24 yds

Missed FG · 9 pl · 56 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 7 yds

FG · 4 pl · 70 yds

Def TD · 3 pl · 1 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -6 yds

Punt · 5 pl · 12 yds

Turnover · 11 pl · 75 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 5 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds

Half · 3 pl · 2 yds

PIT goal2040504020NE goal

Side by side

235

Total yards

330

-0.36

EPA per play

-0.07

37%

Success rate

41%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

2/12

Third downs

4/12

Steelers leaders

PassingA.Rodgers23/39 · 187 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT

RushingJ.Warren11 car · 43 yds

ReceivingG.Bernard4/8 · 35 yds

Patriots leaders

PassingD.Maye14/22 · 208 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT

RushingT.Henderson16 car · 76 yds

ReceivingR.Doubs3/4 · 96 yds

Scoring

Q1 08:29	(Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson left guard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	0-6
Q1 08:22	8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.	0-7
Q2 14:18	8-A.Borregales 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.	0-10
Q2 00:05	(:05) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.	3-10
Q3 00:46	(:46) 8-A.Borregales 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.	3-13
Q4 13:46	(Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 21 for -9 yards (90-C.Barmore). FUMBLES (90-C.Barmore) [90-C.Barmore], RECOVERED by NE-91-E.Ponder at PIT 19. 91-E	3-19
Q4 13:37	8-A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.	3-20

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had NE 55%, the market NE 67%. It finished PIT 3, NE 20.

Pick published 20 Sept, 16:01 UK, before kickoff.