Saints at Ravens: week 2 | Fourth and Data

Saints

won by 7

Final · week 2

24–17

at M&T Bank Stadium · Sun 20 Sept

Ravens

lost by 7

How the game swung

The Ravens' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Ravens ahead■ Saints ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The plays that decided it

Q4 2:03 - New Orleans momentum-shifting play by T.Shough (+18% WPA) flipped the script.

Q4 5:41 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

T.Shough EPA +1.7

(No Huddle) 6-T.Shough up the middle to BAL 43 for 1 yard (14-K.Hamilton).

+10%win chance to NO

Q4 2:03 · Big play · nobody saw this coming

T.Shough EPA +3.4

(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to BAL 5 for 25 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on BAL-91-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at BAL 5.

+18%win chance to NO

Q4 1:32 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

T.Shough EPA +3.4

6-T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

+14%win chance to NO

Q4 0:20 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming

L.Jackson EPA -1.8

(:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left intended for 7-R.Bateman INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Blackmon at NO 7. 23-J.Blackmon to NO 9 for 2 yards (7-R.Bateman).

+6%win chance to NO

Every drive

Saints drive left to right, Ravens right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds

Punt · 6 pl · 12 yds

TD · 12 pl · 81 yds

Punt · 8 pl · 49 yds

Missed FG · 6 pl · 63 yds

FG · 11 pl · 61 yds

TD · 10 pl · 80 yds

FG · 3 pl · 15 yds

FG · 7 pl · 36 yds

FG · 13 pl · 52 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -12 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -11 yds

TD · 10 pl · 70 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 9 yds

TD · 16 pl · 70 yds

Turnover · 5 pl · 34 yds

Half · 0 pl · 0 yds

NO goal2040504020BAL goal

Side by side

301

Total yards

312

+0.15

EPA per play

+0.12

45%

Success rate

64%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

8/15

Third downs

4/9

Saints leaders

PassingT.Shough27/34 · 252 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT

RushingT.Etienne9 car · 25 yds

ReceivingC.Olave8/10 · 86 yds

Ravens leaders

PassingL.Jackson21/31 · 235 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT

RushingD.Henry16 car · 68 yds

ReceivingR.Bateman7/9 · 88 yds

Scoring

Q1 02:57	(Shotgun) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	0-6
Q1 02:52	33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.	0-7
Q2 03:49	10-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright.	3-7
Q2 00:28	(:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 7-R.Bateman for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	3-13
Q2 00:24	33-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.	3-14
Q2 00:02	(:02) 10-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright.	6-14
Q3 11:05	10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright.	9-14
Q3 03:28	33-T.Loop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.	9-17
Q4 09:47	(Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	15-17
Q4 09:42	TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-T.Etienne rushes right end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.	17-17
Q4 01:32	6-T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on	23-17
Q4 01:28	10-D.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright.	24-17

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had BAL 77%, the market BAL 76%. It finished NO 24, BAL 17.

Pure variance - no actionable learning. Process was sound.

Pick published 20 Sept, 16:01 UK, before kickoff.