PIT
CLE
IND
WAS
ARI
NYG
DAL
HOU
GB
TB
JAX
CIN
LA
PHI
NE
BUF
NYJ
CHI
TEN
BAL
MIA
MIN
DEN
SF
KC
LV
DET
CAR
ATL
NO
SEA look like a strong play here. LAC have struggled recently, losing 3 of their last 3.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How SEA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Seattle are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Johnston's likeliest route is short throws (58% of his targets), where they rank 14th.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How LAC defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Chargers rank 24th against short throws and 28th for yards after the catch allowed. Smith-Njigba takes 49% of his targets short and is 78th percentile after the catch.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How SEA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Seattle rank 5th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is short throws (14th).
- Pressure: Seattle are 11th at getting sacks, and the Chargers are 28th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 3. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Chargers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)LAC offenceSEA defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the Seahawks defence has a 28-place edge.
When the Seahawks have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)SEA offenceLAC defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Seahawks offence has a 19-place edge.
Only 3 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.
Form and history
Chargers this seasonSeahawks this season37-23SEA at LAC2022-10
Injury report
Chargersmodel impact 0.0| KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR · Hamstring | IR |
| David NjokuTE · Lower Leg | IR |
| Denzel PerrymanLB | IR |
| Scott MatlockDT | IR |
| Branson TaylorOL | IR |
| Tyler BiadaszC · Knee | IR |
| Trey PipkinsT · Knee | IR |
| Isaiah WorldOT · Knee | PUP |
| Charlie KolarTE · Forearm | Doubtful |
| Brenen ThompsonWR · Quadriceps | Questionable |
| Donte JacksonCB · Concussion | Questionable |
| Elijah MoldenCB · Hamstring | Questionable |
Seahawksmodel impact 0.0| Jake BoboWR · Knee | IR |
| Irv CharlesWR | IR |
| Robbie OuztsRB | IR |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Knee - ACL | PUP |
| Anthony BradfordOL · Knee | IR |
| Mason RichmanOL · Knee | IR |
| Bud ClarkDB · Ankle | IR |
| Aaron SmithLB | Questionable |
| Brandon PiliDT · Concussion | Questionable |
| Julian LoveDB · Calf | Questionable |
| Ty OkadaDB · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Terrion ArnoldDB | NA |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors SEA (81%) by 10.9 points.