How the game swung

The Bills' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

The plays that decided it

Q1 3:49 - Buffalo explosive play by J.Allen (+9% WPA) sealed it.

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Even

Even: Brown had 142 yards on 13 targets, close to his usual 84.

Profile

Targets13

Yards142

After the catch43

Yards on short throws27%

deep share of yards19%

Expected (his usual)8435%

Even

Even: Shakir had 38 yards on 6 targets, close to his usual 43.

Profile

Targets6

Yards38

After the catch19

Yards on short throws66%

deep share of yards0%

Expected (his usual)4271%

Jared Goff won it

Goff won it: +0.44 EPA a dropback, above his usual +0.18.

Profile

epa db0.442292541556526

dropbacks42

Expected (his usual)18%

Every drive

Lions drive left to right, Bills right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1

TD · 10 pl · 80 yds

Q1

Punt · 3 pl · -5 yds

Q1

TD · 8 pl · 79 yds

Q1

Punt · 4 pl · 15 yds

Q1

TD · 9 pl · 50 yds

Q2

TD · 12 pl · 80 yds

Q2

TD · 4 pl · 78 yds

Q2

Punt · 4 pl · 8 yds

Q2

Punt · 5 pl · 12 yds

Q2

FG · 7 pl · 57 yds

Q3

TD · 11 pl · 74 yds

Q3

TD · 15 pl · 73 yds

Q3

TD · 11 pl · 58 yds

Q4

Punt · 6 pl · 15 yds

Q4

Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds

Q4

TD · 8 pl · 61 yds

Q4

TD · 7 pl · 68 yds

Q4

Half · 1 pl · 1 yds

Side by side

355

Total yards

449

+0.23

EPA per play

+0.43

48%

Success rate

58%

22

First downs

31

4

Sacks taken

2

0

Turnovers

0

4/11

Third downs

9/11

Lions leaders

PassingJ.Goff26/38 · 327 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT

RushingJ.Gibbs16 car · 52 yds

ReceivingA.St. Brown9/13 · 142 yds

Bills leaders

PassingJ.Allen20/31 · 248 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT

RushingJ.Cook21 car · 135 yds

ReceivingD.Kincaid7/8 · 95 yds

Scoring

Q1 09:13		(No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	0-6
Q1 09:09		16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	0-7
Q1 03:49		(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-S.Gill-Howard].	0-13
Q1 03:42		16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	0-14
Q2 11:52		17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	0-20
Q2 11:48		16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	0-21
Q2 05:07		(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	6-21
Q2 05:03		39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.	7-21
Q2 02:56		(Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 86-D.Kincaid for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	7-27
Q2 00:01		(:01) 39-J.Bates 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.	10-27
Q3 09:31		(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	16-27
Q3 09:29		39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.	17-27
Q3 01:13		17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	17-33
Q3 01:07		16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	17-34
Q4 10:57		16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-S.LaPorta for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	23-34
Q4 10:53		39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.	24-34
Q4 02:53		4-J.Cook right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.	24-40
Q4 02:50		16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.	24-41
Q4 01:48		(Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-M.Danna].	30-41
Q4 01:42		39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.	31-41