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16Jared Goff
Detroit Lions#1610 yrs expCalifornia76 · 217 lbElite ball security, weak legs
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified quarterback over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
85: high-end starter
One number for how well Goff has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified quarterback; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 94 (#5 of 44).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Passing TDs over 1.5
Passing yards over 256.5
Where Goff can hurt the Jets
How he gets his production, set against how the Jets have held up in their last 17 games. Ranks are of 32.
How NYJ defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Jets rank 30th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 30th against short throws.
- Pressure: the Jets are 31st at getting sacks, and Detroit are 15th at avoiding them.
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | Rush yds | EPA | Over 256.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 2 |  BUF | 26 | 38 | 327 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 | +18.6 | Yes |
| 26 wk 1 |  NO | 26 | 39 | 206 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +5.9 | No |
| 25 wk 18 |  CHI | 27 | 42 | 331 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +12.3 | Yes |
| 25 wk 17 |  MIN | 18 | 29 | 197 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -7.9 | No |
| 25 wk 16 |  PIT | 34 | 54 | 364 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | +10.9 | Yes |
| 25 wk 15 |  LA | 25 | 41 | 338 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +12.8 | Yes |
| 25 wk 14 |  DAL | 25 | 34 | 309 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | +12.2 | Yes |
| 25 wk 13 |  GB | 20 | 26 | 256 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 24 | +9.5 | No |
| 25 wk 12 |  NYG | 28 | 42 | 279 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -6.9 | Yes |
| 25 wk 11 |  PHI | 14 | 37 | 255 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -14.3 | No |
| 25 wk 10 |  WAS | 25 | 33 | 320 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +25.3 | Yes |
| 25 wk 9 | MIN | 25 | 37 | 284 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +4.1 | Yes |
| 25 wk 7 |  TB | 20 | 29 | 241 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -8.6 | No |
| 25 wk 6 |  KC | 23 | 29 | 203 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | +6.7 | No |
| 25 wk 5 |  CIN | 19 | 23 | 258 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | +11.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 4 |  CLE | 16 | 27 | 168 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | No |
| 25 wk 3 |  BAL | 20 | 28 | 202 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +14.2 | No |