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14Amon-Ra St. Brown
Detroit Lions#145 yrs expUSC72 · 202 lbElite volume, weak depth
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified wide receiver over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
85: high-end starter
One number for how well Brown has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified wide receiver; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 96 (#7 of 121).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Receiving yards over 77.5
Receptions over 7.5
Where Brown can hurt the Patriots
How he gets his production, set against how the Patriots have held up in their last 17 games. Ranks are of 32.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How NE defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- New England rank 26th against intermediate throws, which make up 32% of Brown's targets.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 67th percentile for separation and 39th for hands, and Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
NE's corners, last 17 games
Who is likely to see him. Free data doesn't say who covers whom on each snap, so this is the group, not a confirmed matchup.
| Corner | Targets | Yds / target | Catch % | Depth faced | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Gonzalez | 90 | 5.6 | 52% | 10.3 | 75 |
| Carlton Davis | 73 | 6.0 | 67% | 9.0 | 89 |
| Marcus Jones | 73 | 8.1 | 68% | 7.6 | 97 |
| Charles Woods | 32 | 9.0 | 66% | 10.5 | 88 |
The average corner allows 7.4 yards per target. Red is tighter than average, green is looser.
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Air yds | EPA | Over 77.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 9 |  MIA | 10 | 8 | 86 | 0 | 82 | +0.3 | Yes |
| 26 wk 8 |  MIN | 8 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 36 | +4.2 | No |
| 26 wk 7 |  GB | 11 | 9 | 153 | 0 | 139 | +8.9 | Yes |
| 26 wk 5 |  ARI | 11 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 92 | +2.7 | No |
| 26 wk 4 |  CAR | 11 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 98 | -2.0 | No |
| 26 wk 3 |  NYJ | 8 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 57 | -1.4 | No |
| 26 wk 2 |  BUF | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 148 | +10.7 | Yes |
| 26 wk 1 |  NO | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 70 | +0.8 | No |
| 25 wk 18 |  CHI | 15 | 11 | 139 | 0 | 145 | +6.0 | Yes |
| 25 wk 17 | MIN | 13 | 8 | 68 | 0 | 92 | -0.4 | No |
| 25 wk 16 |  PIT | 9 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 30 | -0.9 | No |
| 25 wk 15 |  LA | 18 | 13 | 164 | 2 | 134 | +10.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 14 |  DAL | 9 | 6 | 92 | 0 | 62 | +2.3 | Yes |
| 25 wk 13 | GB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -1.5 | No |
| 25 wk 12 |  NYG | 13 | 9 | 149 | 1 | 155 | +5.8 | Yes |
| 25 wk 11 |  PHI | 12 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 147 | -10.7 | No |
| 25 wk 10 |  WAS | 8 | 5 | 58 | 1 | 56 | +4.1 | No |