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12Nico Collins
Houston Texans#125 yrs expMichigan76 · 222 lbElite hands, weak separation
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified wide receiver over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
91: elite creator
One number for how well Collins has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified wide receiver; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 98 (#3 of 121).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Receiving yards over 76.5
Receptions over 5.5
Where Collins can hurt the Jaguars
How he gets his production, set against how the Jaguars have held up in their last 17 games. Ranks are of 32.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How JAX defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Jacksonville are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Collins's likeliest route is deep balls (20% of his targets), where they rank 13th.
- Don't force short throws: they've been Collins's worst return (-0.02 EPA a target), and Jacksonville are 1st there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 3rd percentile for separation and 93rd for hands, and Jarrian Jones and Jourdan Lewis both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
JAX's corners, last 17 games
Who is likely to see him. Free data doesn't say who covers whom on each snap, so this is the group, not a confirmed matchup.
| Corner | Targets | Yds / target | Catch % | Depth faced | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrian Jones | 82 | 6.5 | 55% | 9.8 | 70 |
| Montaric Brown | 79 | 7.5 | 57% | 12.3 | 85 |
| Greg Newsome II | 59 | 7.7 | 63% | 11.4 | 94 |
| Jourdan Lewis | 49 | 5.9 | 63% | 7.6 | 93 |
The average corner allows 7.4 yards per target. Red is tighter than average, green is looser.
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Air yds | EPA | Over 76.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 5 |  TEN | 7 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 82 | +4.5 | No |
| 26 wk 4 |  DAL | 8 | 7 | 118 | 2 | 112 | +9.4 | Yes |
| 26 wk 1 |  BUF | 10 | 7 | 75 | 1 | 120 | +4.9 | No |
| 25 wk 17 |  LAC | 4 | 3 | 57 | 0 | 57 | +4.3 | No |
| 25 wk 16 |  LV | 9 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 153 | +1.7 | No |
| 25 wk 15 |  ARI | 4 | 3 | 85 | 2 | 35 | +8.0 | Yes |
| 25 wk 14 |  KC | 8 | 4 | 121 | 0 | 129 | +3.7 | Yes |
| 25 wk 13 |  IND | 10 | 5 | 98 | 0 | 180 | +6.2 | Yes |
| 25 wk 12 | BUF | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 36 | +3.1 | No |
| 25 wk 11 | TEN | 10 | 9 | 92 | 1 | 104 | +7.8 | Yes |
| 25 wk 10 | JAX | 15 | 7 | 136 | 0 | 188 | -2.1 | Yes |
| 25 wk 9 |  DEN | 11 | 7 | 75 | 0 | 148 | +4.1 | No |
| 25 wk 7 |  SEA | 10 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 102 | -6.5 | No |
| 25 wk 5 |  BAL | 5 | 4 | 52 | 1 | 64 | +5.2 | No |
| 25 wk 4 | TEN | 6 | 4 | 79 | 0 | 71 | +3.4 | Yes |
| 25 wk 3 | JAX | 11 | 8 | 104 | 1 | 139 | +4.0 | Yes |
| 25 wk 2 |  TB | 9 | 3 | 52 | 1 | 88 | -4.0 | No |