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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15SEA53%DENSun 14:30HOUJAX64%Sun 18:00BAL71%CLESun 18:00CAR57%PHISun 18:00CHI53%ATLSun 18:00NONYG60%Sun 18:00NYJNE82%Sun 18:00PIT51%TBSun 18:00TENIND70%Sun 21:05ARILA69%Sun 21:25BUF70%LVSun 21:25LACKC87%Mon 01:20DAL53%GBTue 01:15WASSF85%
Titans
lost by 6
Final · week 4
18–24
at M&T Bank Stadium · Sun 4 Oct
Ravens
won by 6

How the game swung

The Ravens' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 12:13: BAL score (0-6)Q1 12:09: BAL score (0-7)Q1 06:01: TEN score (6-7)Q1 05:56: TEN score (7-7)Q2 12:22: BAL score (7-13)Q2 12:16: BAL score (7-14)Q2 03:36: BAL score (7-20)Q2 03:32: BAL score (7-21)Q2 00:05: BAL score (7-24)Q3 06:55: TEN score (10-24)Q4 01:16: TEN score (16-24)Q4 01:12: TEN score (18-24)12345BAL winning ↑TEN winning ↓
■ Ravens ahead■ Titans ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q1 14:18 - Tennessee turnover by C.Ward (-18% WPA) flipped the script.

1
Q1 14:18 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
C.Ward EPA -6.7

1-C.Ward pass short middle intended for 20-T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Simpson [15-M.Green] at BAL 39. 32-T.Simpson pushed ob at TEN 37 for 24 yards (51-A.Schlottmann).

+18%win chance to BAL
2
Q1 12:13 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
D.Henry EPA +2.9

(Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

+6%win chance to BAL
3
Q2 8:20 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
T.Pollard EPA -3.1

(Shotgun) Direct snap to 20-T.Pollard. 20-T.Pollard right guard to BAL 2 for no gain (92-N.Madubuike).

+6%win chance to BAL
4
Q2 0:46 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
C.Ward EPA -1.1

(:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 14-C.Tate to BAL 37 for 33 yards (14-K.Hamilton). FUMBLES (14-K.Hamilton), RECOVERED by BAL-24-M.Starks at BAL 35.

+2%win chance to BAL
5
Q4 1:51 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
C.Ward EPA +4.7

(Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 14-C.Tate to BAL 3 for 33 yards (24-M.Starks) [15-M.Green].

+0%win chance to TEN

Who won the matchups

Before the game we said where each player's edge was. Here's whether it happened.

Defence won it

Baltimore won it: Robinson held to 19 yards on 5 targets, against his usual 54.

Profile
Targets5
Yards19
After the catch16
Yards on short throws100%
deep share of yards0%
Expected (his usual)26%
Zay Flowers won it

Flowers won it deep: 52 of his 118 yards came on throws of 20+ yards.

Profile
Targets10
Yards118
After the catch48
Yards on short throws47%
deep share of yards44%
Expected (his usual)40%
Lamar Jackson won it

Jackson won it: +0.53 EPA a dropback, above his usual +0.11.

Profile
epa db0.5341994476410493
dropbacks22
Expected (his usual)11%

Every drive

Titans drive left to right, Ravens right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
Turnover · 2 pl · 15 yds
Q1
TD · 5 pl · 37 yds
Q1
TD · 10 pl · 65 yds
Q1
Punt · 5 pl · 10 yds
Q1
Punt · 4 pl · 10 yds
Q1
TD · 6 pl · 81 yds
Q2
Downs · 10 pl · 38 yds
Q2
TD · 8 pl · 99 yds
Q2
Punt · 5 pl · 20 yds
Q2
Punt · 4 pl · 22 yds
Q2
Turnover · 2 pl · 33 yds
Q2
FG · 5 pl · 19 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 12 yds
Q3
FG · 9 pl · 37 yds
Q3
Punt · 5 pl · 17 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 9 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 7 yds
Q4
Punt · 5 pl · 32 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q4
Missed FG · 10 pl · 48 yds
Q4
TD · 8 pl · 72 yds
Q4
Half · 0 pl · 0 yds
TEN goal2040504020BAL goal

Side by side

299
Total yards
386
-0.14
EPA per play
+0.17
37%
Success rate
44%
17
First downs
19
1
Sacks taken
2
2
Turnovers
0
2/10
Third downs
2/10
Titans leaders
PassingC.Ward20/31 · 222 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
RushingT.Pollard16 car · 48 yds
ReceivingC.Tate9/12 · 145 yds
Ravens leaders
PassingL.Jackson15/20 · 222 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
RushingD.Henry23 car · 73 yds
ReceivingZ.Flowers8/10 · 118 yds

Scoring

Q1 12:13(Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.0-6
Q1 12:0933-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.0-7
Q1 06:0120-T.Pollard right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-7
Q1 05:566-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.7-7
Q2 12:22(Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.7-13
Q2 12:1633-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.7-14
Q2 03:368-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.7-20
Q2 03:3233-T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.7-21
Q2 00:05(:05) 33-T.Loop 64 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.7-24
Q3 06:556-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.10-24
Q4 01:16(No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 4-W.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.16-24
Q4 01:12TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 1-C.Ward pass to 84-G.Helm is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.18-24

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had BAL 81%, the market BAL 84%. It finished TEN 18, BAL 24.

Pick published 4 Oct, 10:11 UK, before kickoff.