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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15ATLGB70%Sun 18:00CAR64%CLESun 18:00CIN55%PITSun 18:00HOUIND53%Sun 18:00KC59%MIASun 18:00LACBUF83%Sun 18:00NEJAX69%Sun 18:00NYJDET53%Sun 18:00SEA71%WASSun 18:00TEN53%NYGSun 21:05ARISF67%Sun 21:05MIN52%TBSun 21:25BALDAL54%Sun 21:25LVNO57%Mon 01:20LA65%DENTue 01:15PHI52%CHI
Jets
won by 13
Final · week 1
23–10
at Nissan Stadium · Sun 13 Sept
Titans
lost by 13

How the game swung

The Titans' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 10:50: NYJ score (6-0)Q1 10:45: NYJ score (7-0)Q1 05:08: TEN score (7-3)Q2 05:06: NYJ score (10-3)Q3 09:44: NYJ score (16-3)Q3 09:41: NYJ score (17-3)Q3 04:38: NYJ score (20-3)Q4 05:05: NYJ score (23-3)Q4 02:45: TEN score (23-9)Q4 02:42: TEN score (23-10)1234TEN winning ↑NYJ winning ↓
■ Titans ahead■ Jets ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The plays that decided it

Q2 5:03 - Tennessee turnover by J.Sanders (-14% WPA) flipped the script.

1
Q2 10:14 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
G.Smith EPA +2.8

(Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson to TEN 31 for 9 yards (23-K.Winston; 24-A.Taylor).

+6%win chance to NYJ
2
Q2 7:29 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming
B.Allen EPA +1.6

(Shotgun) 0-B.Allen left guard to TEN 19 for 3 yards (53-A.Hill; 23-K.Winston).

+4%win chance to NYJ
3
Q2 5:03 · Turnover · nobody saw this coming
C.Dike EPA -4.0

19-J.Sanders kicks 55 yards from NYJ 35 to TEN 10. 17-C.Dike to TEN 30 for 20 yards (41-M.McCrary-Ball). FUMBLES (41-M.McCrary-Ball), RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at TEN 38. ** Injury Update: TEN-17-C.Dike has returned to the game.

+14%win chance to NYJ
4
Q2 2:44 · Other · nobody saw this coming
NYJ EPA -3.0

19-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

+13%win chance to TEN

Every drive

Jets drive left to right, Titans right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Q1
TD · 8 pl · 55 yds
Q1
FG · 11 pl · 46 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 4 yds
Q1
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q1
FG · 18 pl · 78 yds
Q2
Missed FG · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q2
Punt · 3 pl · 7 yds
Q2
Half · 5 pl · 33 yds
Q3
Punt · 5 pl · 20 yds
Q3
TD · 5 pl · 90 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 7 yds
Q3
FG · 6 pl · 60 yds
Q3
Punt · 7 pl · 30 yds
Q3
Punt · 3 pl · 9 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 2 yds
Q4
Punt · 3 pl · 9 yds
Q4
Punt · 5 pl · 16 yds
Q4
FG · 4 pl · 19 yds
Q4
TD · 9 pl · 65 yds
Q4
Half · 2 pl · 11 yds
NYJ goal2040504020TEN goal

Side by side

370
Total yards
195
+0.17
EPA per play
-0.12
50%
Success rate
45%
18
First downs
10
0
Sacks taken
3
0
Turnovers
0
2/11
Third downs
4/12
Jets leaders
PassingG.Smith19/24 · 215 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
RushingB.Hall22 car · 102 yds
ReceivingG.Wilson6/7 · 79 yds
Titans leaders
PassingC.Ward19/32 · 140 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
RushingT.Pollard7 car · 35 yds
ReceivingC.Tate4/6 · 38 yds

Scoring

Q1 10:5016-K.Sadiq left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.6-0
Q1 10:4519-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.7-0
Q1 05:086-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.7-3
Q2 05:0619-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.10-3
Q3 09:4420-B.Hall left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.16-3
Q3 09:4119-J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.17-3
Q3 04:3819-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.20-3
Q4 05:0519-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.23-3
Q4 02:45(Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 5-E.Ayomanor for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.23-9
Q4 02:426-J.Slye extra point is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.23-10

How the model did

Right

Before kickoff the model had NYJ 58%, the market TEN 52%. It finished NYJ 23, TEN 10.

Pick published 13 Sept, 10:05 UK, before kickoff.