NYG
NE
DET
BUF
NYJ
CAR
NO
HOU
CLE
JAX
TEN
KC
IND
MIN
GB
PIT
CIN
LAC
BAL
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to SF. SF have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How DAL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Dallas rank 30th against intermediate throws, which make up 29% of Kittle's targets.
- Work the left side: 47% of his targets go that way and Dallas rank 31st defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How SF defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- San Francisco rank 24th against deep balls, and 15% of Lamb's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Work the left side: 36% of his targets go that way and San Francisco rank 32nd defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How DAL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Dallas rank 30th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 30th against intermediate throws.
- Pressure: Dallas are 28th at getting sacks, and San Francisco are 2nd at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 9. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the 49ers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)SF offenceDAL defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the 49ers offence has a 29-place edge.
When the Cowboys have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)DAL offenceSF defenceBiggest gap: pass protection, where the Cowboys offence has a 22-place edge.
Form and history
49ers this season
27-7wk 1 at LAW
35-13wk 2 vs MIAW
36-30wk 3 vs ARIW
24-14wk 4 vs DENW
32-29wk 5 at SEAW
23-17wk 6 vs WASL
20-29wk 7 at ATLW
38-17wk 9 vs LVCowboys this season
24-30DAL at SF2024-10
10-42DAL at SF2023-10
12-19DAL at SF2023-01
23-17SF at DAL2022-01
Injury report
49ersmodel impact 0.0| Ricky PearsallWR · Knee - PCL | IR |
| De'Zhaun StriblingWR · Ankle | IR |
| Christian KirkWR · Knee - Meniscus | IR |
| Isaac GuerendoRB · Pectoral | PUP |
| Jake TongesTE · Knee | IR |
| Nate HobbsCB · Groin | IR |
| Mikail KamaraDE · Knee | IR |
| Sam OkuayinonuDE · Foot | IR |
| Andrew Farmer IILB · Back | IR |
| Nick MartinLB | IR |
| C.J. WestDT | IR |
| Gracen HaltonDT · Ankle | IR |
Cowboysmodel impact -2.3| Tyler GoodsonRB · Knee | Out |
| Jake FergusonTE · Knee | Out |
| P.J. LockeDB · Concussion | Out |
| Malik DavisRB · Hip | IR |
| Princeton FantTE · Knee - ACL + MCL | IR |
| Devin MooreCB | IR |
| Jonathan BullardDE · Calf | IR |
| Kelvin GilliamDT · Triceps | IR |
| Matt HennessyOL · Neck | IR |
| Jalen ThompsonDB · Hamstring | IR |
| Malachi LawrenceDL · Ankle | IR |
| George PickensWR · Hamstring | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors SF (66%) by 4.6 points.