WAS
NYG
DET
BUF
NYJ
CAR
HOU
JAX
TEN
KC
MIA
MIN
GB
LA
ARI
SEA
LV
SF
DAL
LAC
BAL
CIN look like the play here. PIT have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5. CIN have been rolling at home, winning 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How CIN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Cincinnati rank 28th against short throws, which make up 56% of Metcalf's targets.
- Don't force deep balls: they've been Metcalf's worst return (-0.38 EPA a target), and Cincinnati are 4th there.
- Work the left side: 39% of his targets go that way and Cincinnati rank 27th defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 37th percentile for separation and 30th for hands, and Daxton Hill, DJ Turner and DJ Ivey all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
- Cincinnati give up a sack on 4.6% of dropbacks over their last 17 games, 6th of 32 (a line that holds up).
- Highsmith is 91st percentile for sacks, but against this protection his splash plays (74th percentile) may matter more than sack volume: a strip or a batted ball can swing it.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How PIT defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Pittsburgh rank 29th against deep balls, and 11% of Chase's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 9. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Steelers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)PIT offenceCIN defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Steelers offence has a 23-place edge.
When the Bengals have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)CIN offencePIT defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Steelers defence has a 14-place edge.
Form and history
Steelers this season
20-13wk 1 vs ATLL
3-20wk 2 at NEW30-27wk 3 vs CINL
24-27wk 4 at CLEW
34-22wk 5 vs INDW
26-19wk 6 at TBW
16-10wk 7 at NOW27-6wk 8 vs CLEBengals this season27-30CIN at PIT2026-09
12-34CIN at PIT2025-11
31-33PIT at CIN2025-10
19-17CIN at PIT2025-01
44-38PIT at CIN2024-12
Injury report
Steelersmodel impact -0.8| Max HurlemanCB | Out |
| Roman WilsonWR · Finger | IR |
| Michael Pittman Jr.WR · Foot | IR |
| Donte KentCB | PUP |
| Sebastian Joseph-DayDT · Triceps | IR |
| Logan LeeDL | IR |
| Gennings DunkerOT · Knee | IR |
| Derrick HarmonDL · Foot | IR |
| Jack DriscollT | IR |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Calf | Questionable |
| Brandin EcholsCB · Hamstring | Questionable |
| Doneiko SlaughterDB · Hamstring | Questionable |
Bengalsmodel impact -0.8| Josh KattusTE | Out |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Thumb | IR |
| Erick All Jr.TE · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Pectoral | IR |
| Jalen DavisCB · Hamstring | IR |
| Swayze BozemanLB · Arm | IR |
| Ja'Sir TaylorDB | IR |
| Cashius HowellDL · Wrist | IR |
| Kyle DuggerDB · Quadriceps | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors CIN (66%) by 3.5 points.