Panthers at Saints: week 10

Panthers

3-5 · 24.9 pts/g

Preview · week 10

24–22

projected score · Sun 15 Nov 18:00 UK · 1:00 PM ET

Saints

3-5 · 23.1 pts/g

Model

CAR 55%

Market

NO 54%

Model pickCAR 55%Low confidence

F&D score70out of 100

MarketNO 54%draftkings, margin removed

vs market+9.5points, model minus market

Total45.7CAR by 1.4

This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to CAR.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Tetairoa McMillan · against NO

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

46%

Intermediate

35%

Deep (20+)

18%

Left side

38%

Middle

25%

Right side

36%

How NO defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

19th

Intermediate

2nd

Deep (20+)

31st

Left side

18th

Middle

18th

Right side

14th

Yards after catch allowed

18th

Sack rate forced

3rd

The read

New Orleans rank 31st against deep balls, and 18% of McMillan's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
Don't force short throws: they've been McMillan's worst return (-0.06 EPA a target), and New Orleans are 19th there.
Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Chris Olave · against CAR

Best way in: short throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

48%

Intermediate

27%

Deep (20+)

25%

Left side

45%

Middle

15%

Right side

40%

How CAR defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

23rd

Intermediate

20th

Deep (20+)

13th

Left side

26th

Middle

12th

Right side

20th

Yards after catch allowed

3rd

Sack rate forced

29th

The read

Carolina rank 23rd against short throws, which make up 48% of Olave's targets.
Work the left side: 45% of his targets go that way and Carolina rank 26th defending throws there.
Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 9. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Panthers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

CAR offence

NO defence

OverallEPA per play

9th

24th

PassingEPA per dropback

13th

22nd

RushingEPA per carry

12th

28th

Third downconversion rate

19th

32nd

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

23rd

8th

Biggest gap: rushing, where the Panthers offence has a 16-place edge.

When the Saints have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

NO offence

CAR defence

OverallEPA per play

22nd

21st

PassingEPA per dropback

21st

20th

RushingEPA per carry

24th

25th

Third downconversion rate

8th

29th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

14th

32nd

Biggest gap: third down, where the Saints offence has a 21-place edge.

Form and history

Panthers this season

Saints this season

Last 5 meetingsCAR 1 · NO 4

17-20CAR at NO
2025-12

17-7NO at CAR
2025-11

22-23NO at CAR
2024-11

10-47CAR at NO
2024-09

6-28CAR at NO
2023-12

Injury report

Panthersmodel impact -1.4

Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR	Out
Chris Brazzell IIWR · Knee	IR
Xavier LegetteWR · Knee	IR
Jonathon BrooksRB · Abdomen	IR
Mike JacksonCB · Groin	IR
Jaycee HornCB · Quadriceps	IR
Thomas IncoomLB · Calf	IR
Cam JacksonDT · Knee	IR
Akayleb EvansDB · Triceps	IR
Taylor MotonT · Lower Leg	IR
Ikem EkwonuT · Knee	PUP
Brady ChristensenT · Hamstring	IR

Saintsmodel impact -1.3

Stone SmarttTE	Out
Mason TiptonWR · Groin	PUP
Travis Etienne Jr.RB · Hamstring	IR
Ty ChandlerRB · Knee	IR
Moliki MatavaoTE · Knee	IR
Rejzohn WrightCB · Hip	IR
Bryan BreseeDT · Knee - ACL	IR
Dillon RadunzOL · Knee - ACL	IR
Nick SaldiveriOL · Knee	PUP
Erik McCoyOL · Biceps	Doubtful
CJ DonaldsonRB · Shoulder	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player	Market	Line	Price	Market over	Hit rate
Bryce YoungCARrole up	Passing yards	248.5	1.90	50%	30%
Tyler ShoughNO	Passing yards	252.5	1.88	50%	0%
Bryce YoungCARrole up	Passing TDs	1.5	1.86	51%	40%
Tyler ShoughNO	Passing TDs	1.5	1.83	51%	0%
Chuba HubbardCAR	Rushing yards	74.5	1.88	50%	40%
Chris OlaveNO	Receiving yards	70.5	1.91	50%	40%
Jalen CokerCAR	Receiving yards	50.5	1.91	50%	40%
Tetairoa McMillanCAR	Receiving yards	60.5	1.88	50%	20%
Chris OlaveNO	Receptions	6.5	2.23	42%	20%
Jalen CokerCARrole up	Receptions	4.5	2.06	46%	10%
Tetairoa McMillanCAR	Receptions	4.5	1.64	58%	40%

"Market over" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Green bars are games that cleared the line. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit on 2026 data, so we show the market and the history, not a tip.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

CAR odds2.10

NO odds1.77

CAR fair odds2.19

NO fair odds1.84

Model vs marketCAR +9.5

Kelly stake (capped)3.3%

Bookdraftkings

Rest0d

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.

What the model sees

Model favors CAR (55%) by 1.4 points.