This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to IND. MIA have struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 5. IND have been struggling, dropping 5 of their last 5.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Malik Washington · against IND

The opening is underneath, not deep

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

65%

Intermediate

13%

Deep (20+)

21%

Left side

44%

Middle

16%

Right side

40%

How IND defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

24th

Intermediate

25th

Deep (20+)

11th

Left side

24th

Middle

21st

Right side

24th

Yards after catch allowed

23rd

Sack rate forced

25th

The read

1. Indianapolis rank 24th against short throws and 23rd for yards after the catch allowed. Washington takes 65% of his targets short and is 72nd percentile after the catch.
2. Don't force deep balls: they've been Washington's worst return (-0.48 EPA a target), and Indianapolis are 11th there.
3. Work the left side: 44% of his targets go that way and Indianapolis rank 24th defending throws there.
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Tyler Warren · against MIA

Best way in: intermediate throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

76%

Intermediate

23%

Deep (20+)

2%

Left side

43%

Middle

24%

Right side

33%

How MIA defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

26th

Intermediate

32nd

Deep (20+)

17th

Left side

21st

Middle

30th

Right side

30th

Yards after catch allowed

19th

Sack rate forced

17th

The read

1. Miami rank 32nd against intermediate throws, which make up 22% of Warren's targets.
2. Work the middle: 24% of his targets go that way and Miami rank 30th defending throws there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 34th percentile for separation and 75th for hands, and Rasul Douglas allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Daniel Jones · against MIA

A pass defence to exploit

Profile

How MIA defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

26th

Intermediate

32nd

Deep (20+)

17th

Left side

21st

Middle

30th

Right side

30th

Yards after catch allowed

19th

Sack rate forced

17th

The read

1. Miami rank 29th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 32nd against intermediate throws.
2. Pressure: Miami are 17th at getting sacks, and Indianapolis are 19th at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 9. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Dolphins have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

MIA offence

IND defence

OverallEPA per play

24th

27th

PassingEPA per dropback

23rd

23rd

RushingEPA per carry

22nd

32nd

Third downconversion rate

11th

5th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

30th

16th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Colts defence has a 14-place edge.

When the Colts have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

IND offence

MIA defence

OverallEPA per play

29th

32nd

PassingEPA per dropback

31st

32nd

RushingEPA per carry

6th

22nd

Third downconversion rate

22nd

30th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

22nd

28th

Biggest gap: rushing, where the Colts offence has a 16-place edge.

Form and history

Dolphins this season

L13-27wk 1 at LVL13-35wk 2 at SFL10-24wk 3 vs KCL10-15wk 4 at MINL24-31wk 5 vs CINW28-25wk 7 at NYJL19-24wk 8 vs NEL9-19wk 9 vs DET

Colts this season

L23-41wk 1 vs BALL30-33wk 2 at KCW19-17wk 3 vs HOUW30-13wk 4 at WASL22-34wk 5 at PITL20-26wk 6 vs TENL10-16wk 7 at MINL7-42wk 8 at JAXL23-27wk 9 vs DAL

Last 3 meetingsMIA 0 · IND 3

8-33MIA at IND
2025-09

10-16MIA at IND
2024-10

27-17IND at MIA
2021-10

Injury report

Dolphinsmodel impact 0.0

Malik WillisQB · Groin	IR
De'Von AchaneRB · Knee - ACL	IR
Cole TurnerTE	IR
Darrell Baker Jr.CB	PUP
Trey MooreLB · Ankle	IR
Zach SielerDT · Biceps	IR
Rene KongaDL	IR
Ronnie Harrison Jr.DB · Hamstring	IR
Jaylen WrightRB · Quadriceps	Questionable
Will KacmarekTE · Quadriceps	Questionable

Coltsmodel impact 0.0

Alec PierceWR · Heel	IR
D.J. MontgomeryWR · Abdomen	IR
Carson TowtTE	IR
Arden KeyDE · Hamstring	IR
Cam Taylor-BrittDB · Groin	IR
Micheal ClemonsDL · Toe	IR
Cameron MitchellDB	IR
Jalen TravisOT · Knee	Doubtful
Mo Alie-CoxTE · Groin	Questionable
Justin WalleyCB · Knee	Questionable
Akeem Davis-GaitherLB · Knee	Questionable
Jaylon CarliesDB · Neck	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.