GB look like a strong play here. GB have been rolling at home, winning 4 of their last 5.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Justin Jefferson · against GB

Best way in: short throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

51%

Intermediate

38%

Deep (20+)

11%

Left side

39%

Middle

19%

Right side

43%

How GB defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

21st

Intermediate

5th

Deep (20+)

21st

Left side

17th

Middle

9th

Right side

19th

Yards after catch allowed

8th

Sack rate forced

15th

The read

1. Green Bay rank 21st against short throws, which make up 51% of Jefferson's targets.
2. Don't force intermediate throws: they've been Jefferson's worst return (-0.19 EPA a target), and Green Bay are 5th there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 72nd percentile for separation and 34th for hands, and Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Christian Watson · against MIN

A tough draw

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

43%

Intermediate

30%

Deep (20+)

27%

Left side

31%

Middle

29%

Right side

40%

How MIN defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

10th

Intermediate

1st

Deep (20+)

8th

Left side

6th

Middle

6th

Right side

2nd

Yards after catch allowed

24th

Sack rate forced

1st

The read

1. Minnesota are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (10th, 1st, 8th). There's no obvious soft spot for Watson to lean on.
2. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 6th percentile for separation and 69th for hands, and Byron Murphy, Isaiah Rodgers, James Pierre and Fabian Moreau all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Jordan Love · against MIN

A tough day in the air

Profile

How MIN defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

10th

Intermediate

1st

Deep (20+)

8th

Left side

6th

Middle

6th

Right side

2nd

Yards after catch allowed

24th

Sack rate forced

1st

The read

1. Minnesota rank 1st in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is short throws (10th).
2. Pressure: Minnesota are 1st at getting sacks, and Green Bay are 9th at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 9. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Vikings have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

MIN offence

GB defence

OverallEPA per play

31st

6th

PassingEPA per dropback

28th

5th

RushingEPA per carry

28th

16th

Third downconversion rate

29th

22nd

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

26th

11th

Biggest gap: overall, where the Packers defence has a 25-place edge.

When the Packers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

GB offence

MIN defence

OverallEPA per play

12th

2nd

PassingEPA per dropback

6th

1st

RushingEPA per carry

31st

10th

Third downconversion rate

18th

3rd

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

9th

1st

Biggest gap: rushing, where the Vikings defence has a 21-place edge.

Form and history

Vikings this season

W39-22wk 1 vs GBW9-3wk 2 at CHIW23-16wk 3 at TBW15-10wk 4 vs MIAW23-13wk 5 at NOW16-10wk 7 vs INDL15-19wk 8 at DETL6-23wk 9 vs BUF

Packers this season

L22-39wk 1 at MINW20-17wk 2 at NYJL14-35wk 3 vs ATLW17-14wk 4 at TBW31-7wk 5 vs CHIW23-13wk 6 vs DALL17-20wk 7 at DETW27-19wk 8 vs CARW45-27wk 9 at NE

Last 5 meetingsMIN 4 · GB 1

22-39GB at MIN
2026-09

3-16GB at MIN
2026-01

6-23MIN at GB
2025-11

25-27GB at MIN
2024-12

31-29MIN at GB
2024-09

Injury report

Vikingsmodel impact -3.8

Michael BriscoeWR	Out
Demond ClaiborneRB · Knee	IR
Josh OliverTE · Biceps	IR
Donovan JacksonOL · Knee - Meniscus	IR
Tyler BattyDL · Knee - ACL	IR
Nick SamacC · Knee	IR
Jamal AdamsSS · Knee	IR
Kyler MurrayQB · Hamstring	Doubtful
Jauan JenningsWR · Calf	Questionable
Tyrion Ingram-DawkinsDE · Ankle	Questionable

Packersmodel impact -1.5

Josh JacobsRB · Finger	Out
Jayden ReedWR · Neck	IR
Skyy MooreWR · Ankle	IR
Chris BrooksRB · Ankle	IR
Thomas YassminTE	IR
Luke MusgraveTE	PUP
Collin OliverDE	IR
Micah ParsonsLB · Knee - ACL	PUP
Edgerrin CooperLB · Achilles	IR
Javon HargraveDT · Achilles	IR
Zach Bako-BeweleOL · Knee	IR
Jacob MonkOL · Quadriceps	IR

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.