WAS
NYG
DET
BUF
NYJ
CAR
NO
KC
ATL
MIA
MIN
GB
LA
ARI
SEA
LV
SF
DAL
PIT
LAC
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to JAX. JAX have been hot lately, winning 4 of their last 5. TEN have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How TEN defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Tennessee rank 31st against intermediate throws, which make up 29% of Washington's targets.
- Work the left side: 54% of his targets go that way and Tennessee rank 28th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How JAX defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Jacksonville are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Robinson's likeliest route is deep balls (10% of his targets), where they rank 16th.
- Don't force short throws: they've been Robinson's worst return (-0.06 EPA a target), and Jacksonville are 1st there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How JAX defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Jacksonville rank 2nd in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is deep balls (16th).
- Pressure: Jacksonville are 21st at getting sacks, and Tennessee are 11th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 9. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Jaguars have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)JAX offenceTEN defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Jaguars offence has a 27-place edge.
When the Titans have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)TEN offenceJAX defenceBiggest gap: overall, where the Jaguars defence has a 24-place edge.
Form and history
Jaguars this season
34-10wk 1 vs CLEL
13-20wk 2 at DENW
35-6wk 3 vs NEW
22-17wk 4 at CINW
19-17wk 5 vs PHIL
31-34wk 6 vs HOUW
42-7wk 8 vs INDW
33-10wk 9 at BALTitans this season7-41TEN at JAX2026-01
25-3JAX at TEN2025-11
13-20TEN at JAX2024-12
10-6JAX at TEN2024-12
20-28JAX at TEN2024-01
Injury report
Jaguarsmodel impact 0.0| Zach DurfeeDE · Upper Body | IR |
| B.J. Green IIDE · Elbow | IR |
| Parker HughesLB | IR |
| Jared BartlettLB · Leg | IR |
| DaVon HamiltonDT · Knee | IR |
| Patrick MekariOL · Back | IR |
| Anton HarrisonOL · Knee | IR |
| Sam MustipherOL | IR |
| Eric MurrayDB · Elbow | IR |
| Caleb RansawDB · Knee | IR |
| Garrett DiGiorgioG | IR |
Titansmodel impact 0.0| Jaren KanakTE · Pectoral | IR |
| Jaylen HarrellDE · Knee - ACL | IR |
| Tanoh KpassagnonDE | IR |
| Milo EiflerLB | IR |
| Jackson SlaterOL · Foot | IR |
| James Williams Sr.DB · Groin | IR |
| Fernando Carmona Jr.G · Ankle | IR |
| Kendell BrooksDB | IR |
| Carnell TateWR · Shoulder | Questionable |
| Tyjae SpearsRB · Knee | Questionable |
| Donnie ErnsbergerTE | Questionable |
| Peter SkoronskiOL · Hamstring | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors JAX (77%) by 8.0 points.