NYG
DET
BUF
NYJ
CAR
NO
HOU
CLE
JAX
TEN
ATL
MIA
IND
MIN
GB
LA
DAL
PIT
CIN
BAL
This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to SEA. LV have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 5.
Quarterback watch: SEA starting QB Sam Darnold is Out
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How LV defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Las Vegas rank 30th against short throws, which make up 54% of Smith-Njigba's targets.
- Work the middle: 24% of his targets go that way and Las Vegas rank 25th defending throws there.
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How SEA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Seattle are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (9th, 3rd, 1st). There's no obvious soft spot for Bowers to lean on.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 2nd percentile for separation and 60th for hands, and Devon Witherspoon, Josh Jobe, Riq Woolen and Nehemiah Pritchett all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
How SEA defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Seattle rank 3rd in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is short throws (9th).
- Pressure: Seattle are 19th at getting sacks, and Las Vegas are 24th at avoiding them.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 9. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Seahawks have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)SEA offenceLV defenceBiggest gap: passing, where the Seahawks offence has a 15-place edge.
When the Raiders have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)LV offenceSEA defenceBiggest gap: rushing, where the Seahawks defence has a 20-place edge.
Form and history
Seahawks this season
13-10wk 1 vs NEW
31-7wk 2 at ARIL
31-33wk 3 at WASW
30-23wk 4 vs LACL
29-32wk 5 vs SFL
14-17wk 6 at DENW
20-3wk 7 vs KCL
17-34wk 8 vs CHIW17-3wk 9 vs ARIRaiders this season40-34LV at SEA2022-11
Injury report
Seahawksmodel impact -6.2| Sam DarnoldQB · Quadriceps | Out |
| Jacardia WrightRB · Foot | Out |
| Jake BoboWR · Knee | IR |
| Robbie OuztsRB | IR |
| Elijah ArroyoTE · Shoulder | IR |
| Mason RichmanOL · Knee | IR |
| Julian NealDB · Hamstring | IR |
| Bud ClarkDB · Ankle | IR |
| Quenton NelsonOL · Knee | Doubtful |
| Charles CrossOL · Ankle | Doubtful |
| Drew LockQB · Oblique | Questionable |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Knee | Questionable |
Raidersmodel impact 0.0| Chris CollierRB | IR |
| Chigozie AnusiemCB · Knee | IR |
| Keyron CrawfordDE · Ankle | IR |
| Brennan JacksonDE | IR |
| Patrick JohnsonLB · Neck | IR |
| Justin PickettG | IR |
| Trey Zuhn IIIOT · Concussion | Questionable |
| Thomas Booker IVDL · Ankle | Questionable |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors SEA (68%) by 6.7 points.