This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to HOU.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Nico Collins · against CLE

No obvious soft spot

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

41%

Intermediate

40%

Deep (20+)

19%

Left side

34%

Middle

28%

Right side

38%

How CLE defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

6th

Intermediate

12th

Deep (20+)

2nd

Left side

2nd

Middle

23rd

Right side

6th

Yards after catch allowed

14th

Sack rate forced

4th

The read

1. Cleveland are mid-table or better at every depth over their last 17 games. Collins's likeliest route is intermediate throws (40% of his targets), where they rank 12th.
2. Work the middle: 28% of his targets go that way and Cleveland rank 23rd defending throws there.
3. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 0th percentile for separation and 96th for hands, and Denzel Ward, Tyson Campbell and Mekhi Blackmon all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Harold Fannin Jr. · against HOU

The shot plays are there

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

79%

Intermediate

13%

Deep (20+)

8%

Left side

38%

Middle

28%

Right side

35%

How HOU defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

11th

Intermediate

13th

Deep (20+)

27th

Left side

23rd

Middle

8th

Right side

15th

Yards after catch allowed

15th

Sack rate forced

2nd

The read

1. Houston rank 27th against deep balls, and 8% of Fannin's targets travel 20+ yards (the average TE is at 6%).
2. Don't force short throws: they've been Fannin's worst return (-0.01 EPA a target), and Houston are 11th there.
3. Work the left side: 38% of his targets go that way and Houston rank 23rd defending throws there.
4. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

C.J. Stroud · against CLE

A tough day in the air

Profile

How CLE defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

6th

Intermediate

12th

Deep (20+)

2nd

Left side

2nd

Middle

23rd

Right side

6th

Yards after catch allowed

14th

Sack rate forced

4th

The read

1. Cleveland rank 4th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games. Their weakest area is intermediate throws (12th).
2. Pressure: Cleveland are 4th at getting sacks, and Houston are 5th at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 9. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Texans have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

HOU offence

CLE defence

OverallEPA per play

8th

12th

PassingEPA per dropback

7th

9th

RushingEPA per carry

25th

30th

Third downconversion rate

14th

16th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

10th

6th

Biggest gap: rushing, where the Texans offence has a 5-place edge.

When the Browns have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

CLE offence

HOU defence

OverallEPA per play

26th

16th

PassingEPA per dropback

22nd

17th

RushingEPA per carry

30th

17th

Third downconversion rate

28th

15th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

32nd

2nd

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Texans defence has a 30-place edge.

Form and history

Texans this season

L31-36wk 1 vs BUFL6-20wk 2 vs CINL17-19wk 3 at INDL30-34wk 4 vs DALW26-3wk 5 at TENW34-31wk 6 at JAXL21-27wk 7 vs NYGW44-22wk 9 at LAC

Browns this season

L10-34wk 1 at JAXW23-19wk 2 at TBW21-18wk 3 vs CARW27-24wk 4 vs PITL12-17wk 5 at NYJW13-10wk 6 vs BALW27-24wk 7 at TENL6-27wk 8 at PITL22-23wk 9 at NO

Last 4 meetingsHOU 1 · CLE 3

14-45CLE at HOU
2024-01

36-22CLE at HOU
2023-12

27-14CLE at HOU
2022-12

21-31HOU at CLE
2021-09

Injury report

Texansmodel impact -2.0

Jawhar JordanRB	Out
Noah WhittingtonRB · Quadriceps	Out
Graham MertzQB · Knee - ACL	IR
Jaylin NoelWR · Toe	IR
Jayden HigginsWR · Knee - ACL	IR
British BrooksRB · Hamstring	IR
Jaylin SmithCB · Hamstring	IR
Mario Edwards Jr.DE · Knee - ACL	IR
Solomon ByrdDE · Ankle	IR
Ali GayeDE · Knee	IR
Jake HummelLB · Groin	IR
E.J. SpeedLB · Quadriceps	PUP

Brownsmodel impact -1.4

Nathaniel WatsonLB · Knee	Out
Raheim SandersRB · Hip	IR
Joe RoyerTE · Personal	PUP
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLB · Neck	PUP
Teven JenkinsOL · Back	IR
Kalia DavisDL · Quadriceps	IR
Alex WrightDL · Achilles	IR
Damarri MathisDB	IR
Deshaun WatsonQB · Concussion	Questionable
Maliek CollinsDT · Elbow	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.