WAS
NYG
NE
DET
NYJ
CAR
NO
CLE
JAX
TEN
ATL
MIA
IND
MIN
GB
SF
DAL
PIT
CIN
We lean toward BAL in this one. LAC have struggled recently, losing 5 of their last 5. BAL have been struggling, dropping 4 of their last 5.
Matchups to watch
How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How BAL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Baltimore rank 32nd against deep balls, and 25% of Johnston's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%).
- Work the right side: 41% of his targets go that way and Baltimore rank 25th defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 26th percentile for separation and 31st for hands, and Nate Wiggins allows fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How LAC defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- the Chargers rank 17th against short throws and 26th for yards after the catch allowed. Flowers takes 62% of his targets short and is 94th percentile after the catch.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 80th percentile for separation and 13th for hands, and Tarheeb Still and Benjamin St-Juste both allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
Unit by unit
Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 9. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.
When the Chargers have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)LAC offenceBAL defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Ravens defence has a 17-place edge.
When the Ravens have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)BAL offenceLAC defenceBiggest gap: third down, where the Chargers defence has a 6-place edge.
Form and history
Chargers this season
14-26wk 1 vs ARIL
14-26wk 2 vs LVL
16-24wk 3 at BUFL
23-30wk 4 at SEAL
17-23wk 5 vs DENL
6-22wk 6 at KCL
9-24wk 8 at LAL
22-44wk 9 vs HOURavens this season30-23BAL at LAC2024-11
20-10BAL at LAC2023-11
6-34LAC at BAL2021-10
Injury report
Chargersmodel impact -0.7| Trey LanceQB · Groin | IR |
| David NjokuTE · Lower Leg | IR |
| Denzel PerrymanLB | IR |
| Tyler BiadaszC · Knee | IR |
| Alec IngoldFB | IR |
| Trey Pipkins IIIT · Knee | IR |
| Trevor PenningT · Concussion | IR |
| Derwin James Jr.DB · Hamstring | IR |
| Isaiah WorldOT · Knee | PUP |
| Rashawn SlaterT · Ankle | IR |
| Justin HerbertQB · Finger | Questionable |
| Brenen ThompsonWR · Quadriceps | Questionable |
Ravensmodel impact 0.0| Lamar JacksonQB · Thumb | IR |
| Tyler HuntleyQB · Toe | IR |
| Skylar ThompsonQB | IR |
| Adam RandallRB | IR |
| Durham SmytheTE · Achilles | IR |
| Bilhal KoneCB · Lower Body | IR |
| Tavius RobinsonDE · Pectoral | IR |
| Jovaughn GwynOL · Lower Leg | IR |
| Ethan PocicOL · Knee | IR |
| Danny PinterG · Knee | IR |
| Jahquez RobinsonDB | IR |
| Tyler LoopK · Groin | IR |
Player props
Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.
Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.
The betting view
Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.
Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.
What the model sees
Model favors BAL (59%) by 3.7 points.