This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to LA.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Puka Nacua · against ARI

The opening is underneath, not deep

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

64%

Intermediate

23%

Deep (20+)

13%

Left side

34%

Middle

23%

Right side

44%

How ARI defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

31st

Intermediate

21st

Deep (20+)

30th

Left side

29th

Middle

26th

Right side

31st

Yards after catch allowed

30th

Sack rate forced

23rd

The read

1. Arizona rank 31st against short throws and 30th for yards after the catch allowed. Nacua takes 64% of his targets short and is 85th percentile after the catch.
2. Work the right side: 44% of his targets go that way and Arizona rank 31st defending throws there.
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Trey McBride · against LA

A tough draw

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

75%

Intermediate

21%

Deep (20+)

4%

Left side

29%

Middle

23%

Right side

49%

How LA defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

2nd

Intermediate

9th

Deep (20+)

3rd

Left side

3rd

Middle

15th

Right side

3rd

Yards after catch allowed

22nd

Sack rate forced

20th

The read

1. the Rams are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (2nd, 9th, 3rd). There's no obvious soft spot for McBride to lean on.
2. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 11th percentile for separation and 79th for hands, and Emmanuel Forbes, Josh Wallace, Cobie Durant and Jaylen Watson all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Matthew Stafford · against ARI

A pass defence to exploit

Profile

How ARI defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

31st

Intermediate

21st

Deep (20+)

30th

Left side

29th

Middle

26th

Right side

31st

Yards after catch allowed

30th

Sack rate forced

23rd

The read

1. Arizona rank 31st in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 31st against short throws.
2. Pressure: Arizona are 23rd at getting sacks, and the Rams are 1st at avoiding them.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 9. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Rams have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

LA offence

ARI defence

OverallEPA per play

11th

26th

PassingEPA per dropback

17th

31st

RushingEPA per carry

4th

7th

Third downconversion rate

13th

20th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

4th

15th

Biggest gap: overall, where the Rams offence has a 15-place edge.

When the Cardinals have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

ARI offence

LA defence

OverallEPA per play

21st

4th

PassingEPA per dropback

24th

6th

RushingEPA per carry

14th

2nd

Third downconversion rate

16th

4th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

15th

29th

Biggest gap: passing, where the Rams defence has a 18-place edge.

Form and history

Rams this season

L7-27wk 1 vs SFW28-6wk 2 vs NYGL26-30wk 3 at DENW24-20wk 4 at PHIL34-37wk 5 vs BUFL16-18wk 6 vs ARIW35-21wk 7 at LVW24-9wk 8 vs LACW20-13wk 9 at WAS

Cardinals this season

W26-14wk 1 at LACL7-31wk 2 vs SEAL30-36wk 3 at SFL24-36wk 4 at NYGL21-45wk 5 vs DETW18-16wk 6 at LAL16-30wk 7 vs DENW33-30wk 8 at DALL3-17wk 9 at SEA

Last 5 meetingsLA 3 · ARI 2

18-16ARI at LA
2026-10

20-37ARI at LA
2026-01

45-17LA at ARI
2025-12

9-13ARI at LA
2024-12

10-41LA at ARI
2024-09

Injury report

Ramsmodel impact 0.0

No players on the injury report.

Cardinalsmodel impact -0.8

Kenny YeboahTE	Out
Gardner Minshew IIQB · Elbow	IR
Michael WilsonWR · Neck	IR
Kendrick BourneWR · Lower Leg	IR
Jalen BrooksWR · Wrist	IR
Trey BensonRB · Knee	IR
James ConnerRB · Foot	IR
Jeremiyah LoveRB · Ankle	IR
Hunter LongTE · Knee	IR
Tip ReimanTE · Ankle	PUP
Kaleb ProctorDT · Knee - Meniscus	IR
Paris Johnson Jr.OL · Biceps	IR

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.