Dolphins at Raiders: week 1

Dolphins

lost by 14

Final · week 1

13–27

at Allegiant Stadium · Sun 13 Sept

Raiders

won by 14

How the game swung

The Raiders' chance of winning, play by play. The numbered pins are the biggest swings, dots along the bottom are scores.

■ Raiders ahead■ Dolphins ahead① biggest swings● scoring plays

The five plays that decided it

Q3 14:34 - Las Vegas turnover by K.Cousins (-7% WPA) sealed it.

Q1 4:29 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

C.Heyward EPA +1.9

34-C.Heyward up the middle to MIA 34 for no gain (40-W.Gay; 23-Z.Anderson). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to MIA 33 for 1 yard (10-J.Rodriguez; 3-C.Johnson).

+6%win chance to LV

Q3 14:34 · Turnover

K.Cousins EPA -4.7

(No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left intended for 18-J.Bech INTERCEPTED by 16-M.Taaffe at MIA 46. 16-M.Taaffe to MIA 48 for 2 yards (18-J.Bech).

+7%win chance to MIA

Q3 9:49 · Turnover

M.Willis EPA -2.3

(Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep middle intended for 7-C.Douglas INTERCEPTED by 31-T.Stukes at LV 34. 31-T.Stukes to LV 34 for no gain (7-C.Douglas).

+1%win chance to LV

Q4 11:32 · Turnover

K.Cousins EPA -4.7

(Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle intended for 9-J.Nailor INTERCEPTED by 11-D.Trader at MIA 42. 11-D.Trader to LV 44 for 14 yards (23-D.Laube; 58-J.Powers-Johnson).

+4%win chance to MIA

Q4 4:04 · Fourth down · nobody saw this coming

M.Willis EPA -2.5

(Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 21-K.Coleman.

+2%win chance to LV

Every drive

Dolphins drive left to right, Raiders right to left. Faded bars ended in a turnover or a stop.

Punt · 8 pl · 36 yds

TD · 16 pl · 93 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 7 yds

FG · 8 pl · 23 yds

FG · 9 pl · 57 yds

TD · 7 pl · 54 yds

FG · 5 pl · 51 yds

Turnover · 2 pl · 3 yds

TD · 4 pl · 57 yds

TD · 5 pl · 50 yds

Turnover · 2 pl · 0 yds

FG · 12 pl · 59 yds

Missed FG · 3 pl · -5 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 8 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds

Turnover · 2 pl · -4 yds

Punt · 3 pl · -8 yds

Punt · 6 pl · 10 yds

Downs · 6 pl · 32 yds

Punt · 3 pl · 0 yds

Turnover · 4 pl · 32 yds

Half · 0 pl · 0 yds

MIA goal2040504020LV goal

Side by side

259

Total yards

296

-0.24

EPA per play

-0.04

34%

Success rate

42%

First downs

Sacks taken

Turnovers

2/10

Third downs

5/12

Dolphins leaders

PassingM.Willis15/27 · 220 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT

RushingM.Willis6 car · 39 yds

ReceivingC.Douglas5/7 · 94 yds

Raiders leaders

PassingK.Cousins21/30 · 160 yds · 3 TD · 2 INT

RushingA.Jeanty23 car · 102 yds

ReceivingA.Jeanty6/6 · 45 yds

Scoring

Q1 01:38	(Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Bech for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	0-6
Q1 01:33	14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.	0-7
Q2 10:26	14-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.	0-10
Q2 04:12	47-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: MIA-46-T.Addington has returned to the game.	3-10
Q2 01:12	(Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	3-16
Q2 01:07	14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.	3-17
Q2 00:05	(:05) 47-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.	6-17
Q3 12:52	(Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	12-17
Q3 12:44	47-R.Patterson extra point is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.	13-17
Q3 10:06	8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.	13-23
Q3 09:58	14-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.	13-24
Q3 02:38	14-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.	13-27

How the model did

Wrong

Before kickoff the model had MIA 75%, the market LV 60%. It finished MIA 13, LV 27.

Las Vegas ranks #3 in turnovers (6.7%) - weight turnover tendency higher for high-risk teams.

Pick published 13 Sept, 10:05 UK, before kickoff.