CLE
CIN
HOU
IND
KC
LAC
BUF
NE
JAX
WAS
TEN
ARI
SF
TB
DAL
LV
LA
9Christian Watson
Green Bay Packers#94 yrs expNorth Dakota State76 · 215 lbElite depth, weak separation
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified wide receiver over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
90: elite creator
One number for how well Watson has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified wide receiver; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 79 (#41 of 121).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Receiving yards over 65.5
Receptions over 4.5
Where Watson can hurt the Falcons
How he gets his production, set against how the Falcons have held up in their last 17 games. Ranks are of 32.
Where his targets come from
Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.
How ATL defend it
Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.
- Atlanta rank 23rd against intermediate throws, which make up 32% of Watson's targets.
- Don't force short throws: they've been Watson's worst return (-0.20 EPA a target), and Atlanta are 16th there.
- Work the middle: 27% of his targets go that way and Atlanta rank 25th defending throws there.
- Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 2nd percentile for separation and 55th for hands, and DeAundre Alford, AJ Terrell and C.J. Henderson all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
- Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.
ATL's corners, last 17 games
Who is likely to see him. Free data doesn't say who covers whom on each snap, so this is the group, not a confirmed matchup.
| Corner | Targets | Yds / target | Catch % | Depth faced | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Hughes | 76 | 7.6 | 57% | 13.9 | 92 |
| DeAundre Alford | 75 | 7.2 | 68% | 8.5 | 83 |
| AJ Terrell | 63 | 6.4 | 51% | 11.5 | 81 |
| C.J. Henderson | 20 | 6.3 | 60% | 11.4 | 102 |
The average corner allows 7.4 yards per target. Red is tighter than average, green is looser.
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Air yds | EPA | Over 65.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 2 |  NYJ | 11 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 86 | -3.8 | No |
| 26 wk 1 |  MIN | 8 | 6 | 147 | 2 | 127 | +6.9 | Yes |
| 25 wk 17 |  BAL | 6 | 5 | 113 | 1 | 93 | +8.2 | Yes |
| 25 wk 16 |  CHI | 6 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 50 | -4.7 | No |
| 25 wk 15 |  DEN | 5 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 133 | -2.0 | No |
| 25 wk 14 | CHI | 4 | 4 | 89 | 2 | 43 | +9.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 13 |  DET | 10 | 4 | 80 | 1 | 186 | +3.4 | Yes |
| 25 wk 12 | MIN | 7 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 87 | +4.3 | No |
| 25 wk 11 |  NYG | 5 | 4 | 46 | 2 | 74 | +5.9 | No |
| 25 wk 10 |  PHI | 4 | 2 | 45 | 0 | 126 | +1.8 | No |
| 25 wk 9 |  CAR | 4 | 2 | 58 | 0 | 112 | -0.8 | No |
| 25 wk 8 |  PIT | 4 | 4 | 85 | 0 | 73 | +6.5 | Yes |
| 24 wk 18 | CHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -0.8 | No |
| 24 wk 16 |  NO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | -1.4 | No |
| 24 wk 15 |  SEA | 6 | 3 | 56 | 0 | 94 | -0.3 | No |
| 24 wk 14 | DET | 7 | 4 | 114 | 0 | 89 | -0.2 | Yes |
| 24 wk 13 |  MIA | 4 | 2 | 67 | 0 | 98 | +4.5 | Yes |