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9Joe Burrow
Cincinnati Bengals#96 yrs expLSU; Ohio State76 · 216 lbElite ball security, less so aggression
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified quarterback over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
94: elite creator
One number for how well Burrow has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified quarterback; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 92 (#6 of 44).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Passing TDs over 1.5
Passing yards over 249.5
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | Rush yds | EPA | Over 249.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 2 |  HOU | 20 | 31 | 207 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -1 | -0.5 | No |
| 26 wk 1 |  TB | 25 | 35 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | -2.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 18 |  CLE | 29 | 39 | 236 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17 | -3.4 | No |
| 25 wk 17 |  ARI | 24 | 31 | 305 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +19.0 | Yes |
| 25 wk 16 |  MIA | 25 | 32 | 309 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | +20.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 15 |  BAL | 25 | 39 | 225 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -13.7 | No |
| 25 wk 14 |  BUF | 25 | 36 | 284 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +8.2 | Yes |
| 25 wk 13 | BAL | 24 | 46 | 261 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | +6.1 | Yes |
| 25 wk 2 |  JAX | 7 | 13 | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +0.2 | No |
| 25 wk 1 | CLE | 14 | 23 | 113 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -0.3 | No |
| 24 wk 18 |  PIT | 37 | 46 | 277 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | -1.4 | Yes |
| 24 wk 17 |  DEN | 39 | 49 | 412 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 25 | +18.6 | Yes |
| 24 wk 16 | CLE | 23 | 30 | 252 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 19 | +3.1 | Yes |
| 24 wk 15 |  TEN | 26 | 37 | 271 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7.1 | Yes |
| 24 wk 14 |  DAL | 33 | 44 | 369 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | +10.6 | Yes |
| 24 wk 13 | PIT | 28 | 38 | 309 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -1.2 | Yes |
| 24 wk 11 |  LAC | 28 | 50 | 356 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 28 | +6.4 | Yes |