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17Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills#178 yrs expWyoming; Reedley77 · 237 lbElite legs, weak aggression
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified quarterback over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
92: elite creator
One number for how well Allen has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified quarterback; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 96 (#3 of 44).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Passing TDs over 1.5
Passing yards over 242.5
Rushing yards over 35.5
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | Rush yds | EPA | Over 242.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 2 |  DET | 20 | 31 | 248 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 69 | +15.0 | Yes |
| 26 wk 1 |  HOU | 20 | 29 | 334 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23 | +14.5 | Yes |
| 25 wk 17 |  PHI | 23 | 35 | 262 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 27 | -9.4 | Yes |
| 25 wk 16 |  CLE | 12 | 19 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | -8.5 | No |
| 25 wk 15 |  NE | 19 | 28 | 193 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 48 | +9.5 | No |
| 25 wk 14 |  CIN | 22 | 28 | 251 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 78 | +16.7 | Yes |
| 25 wk 13 |  PIT | 15 | 23 | 123 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 38 | +5.4 | No |
| 25 wk 12 | HOU | 24 | 34 | 253 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 20 | -7.3 | Yes |
| 25 wk 11 |  TB | 19 | 30 | 317 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 40 | +12.4 | Yes |
| 25 wk 10 |  MIA | 28 | 40 | 306 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 31 | +4.2 | Yes |
| 25 wk 9 |  KC | 23 | 26 | 273 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | +9.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 8 |  CAR | 12 | 19 | 163 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | +7.7 | No |
| 25 wk 6 |  ATL | 15 | 26 | 180 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 42 | -7.2 | No |
| 25 wk 5 | NE | 22 | 31 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 53 | +10.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 4 |  NO | 16 | 22 | 209 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 45 | +4.9 | No |
| 25 wk 3 | MIA | 22 | 28 | 213 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 25 | +10.6 | No |
| 25 wk 2 |  NYJ | 14 | 25 | 148 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 59 | -2.2 | No |