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4Deshaun Watson
Cleveland Browns#49 yrs expClemson75 · 221 lbBest at ball security, weak sack avoidance
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified quarterback over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
58: replacement level
One number for how well Watson has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified quarterback; 99 is the best. The three-season score needs more games before it means anything.
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Passing TDs over 1.5
Passing yards over 201.5
Rushing yards over 28.5
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | Rush yds | EPA | Over 201.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 5 |  NYJ | 15 | 33 | 155 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 40 | -12.5 | No |
| 26 wk 4 |  PIT | 24 | 33 | 268 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22 | +9.2 | Yes |
| 26 wk 3 |  CAR | 16 | 30 | 144 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 45 | +2.5 | No |
| 26 wk 2 |  TB | 24 | 30 | 238 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22 | +10.4 | Yes |
| 26 wk 1 |  JAX | 16 | 22 | 205 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 38 | -5.6 | Yes |
| 24 wk 7 |  CIN | 15 | 17 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +0.3 | No |
| 24 wk 6 |  PHI | 16 | 23 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | +1.5 | No |
| 24 wk 5 |  WAS | 15 | 28 | 125 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 14 | -15.1 | No |
| 24 wk 4 |  LV | 24 | 32 | 176 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 32 | -6.9 | No |
| 24 wk 3 |  NYG | 21 | 37 | 196 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 26 | -19.5 | No |
| 24 wk 2 | JAX | 22 | 34 | 186 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | +1.2 | No |
| 24 wk 1 |  DAL | 24 | 45 | 169 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 39 | -23.1 | No |
| 23 wk 10 |  BAL | 20 | 34 | 213 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 37 | -0.2 | Yes |
| 23 wk 9 |  ARI | 19 | 30 | 219 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 22 | +1.4 | Yes |
| 23 wk 7 |  IND | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5.9 | No |
| 23 wk 3 |  TEN | 27 | 33 | 289 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 16 | +12.5 | Yes |
| 23 wk 2 | PIT | 22 | 40 | 235 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 22 | -16.0 | Yes |