IND
WAS
ARI
NYG
DAL
HOU
GB
TB
JAX
CIN
LA
PHI
NE
BUF
NYJ
CHI
TEN
BAL
MIA
MIN
KC
LV
LAC
SEA
DET
CAR
ATL
NODenver at San Francisco: what decides it
DEN at SF, Sunday 4:25pm ET. Model SF 79%, market SF 57%.
Week 4, Sunday 4:25pm ET. Denver visit San Francisco. The matchup numbers first, then the model and the market — understand the game before you bet on it.
How they have played so far
| DEN | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| Offence EPA/play | -0.06 (20th) | +0.36 (1st) |
| Defence EPA/play allowed | +0.05 (21st) | -0.01 (16th) |
| Offence success rate | 41% (21st) | 57% (1st) |
| Third-down conversion | 37% (22nd) | 63% (1st) |
| Pressure rate allowed | 23% (17th) | 13% (1st) |
| Pressure rate generated | 23% (15th) | 25% (8th) |
| Red-zone TD rate | 55% (20th) | 93% (1st) |
Season to date, weeks 1-3 (rank of 32 in brackets)
Where it gets decided
San Francisco's offence (1st in EPA per play) meets a Denver defence ranked 21st — that's the mismatch to watch. San Francisco's protection (1st in pressure allowed) should hold up against Denver's rush (15th).
A caveat worth keeping: that's 3 games of evidence per team. Early-season ranks move a lot.
Matchups to watch
Jaylen Waddle against San Francisco: the shot plays are there. San Francisco rank 24th against deep balls, and 18% of Waddle's targets travel 20+ yards (the average WR is at 17%). Work the left side: 44% of his targets go that way and San Francisco rank 28th defending throws there.
Mike Evans against Denver: a tough draw. Denver are top ten against short, intermediate and deep throws over their last 17 games (8th, 10th, 9th). There's no obvious soft spot for Evans to lean on. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 5th percentile for separation and 73rd for hands, and Riley Moss, Ja'Quan McMillian and Patrick Surtain II all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
Bo Nix against San Francisco: a pass defence to exploit. San Francisco rank 27th in EPA per dropback allowed over their last 17 games, and 24th against deep balls. Pressure: San Francisco are 32nd at getting sacks, and Denver are 4th at avoiding them.
These are the defence's profiles against each player's usual targets, not confirmed one-on-ones: free data doesn't show who covers whom.
The model and the market
The model has San Francisco at 79% (medium confidence), with a line of SF by 11.2. The market agrees on the side at 57% (SF by 3). That's one input, not a tip: across 2026 the market has called more winners than we have, so read the matchup below before you lean either way.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play; PFR advanced passing; 4th & Data run 2026-10-01T09-09-17Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.
