SEA
DEN
HOU
JAX
BAL
CAR
PHI
CHI
ATL
NO
NYG
NYJ
NE
TB
TEN
IND
ARI
LA
BUF
LV
LAC
KC
DAL
GB
WAS
SFCleveland 27, Pittsburgh 24: our lean held, the market's didn't
We had Cleveland at 53%. The market had Pittsburgh by 2.5. Cleveland won 27-24 at Huntington Bank Field.
We had Cleveland at 53%. The market had Pittsburgh by 2.5. Cleveland won 27-24 at Huntington Bank Field. Our lean held, but at 53% that was close to a coin flip. The market leaned the other way.
How it swung
1. In the 1st quarter (5:49), Aaron Rodgers found Michael Pittman for 9 yards, plus 15 more for roughing the passer, a 12-point swing in win probability towards Pittsburgh.
3. With 1:42 left, Aaron Rodgers ran in the two-point conversion, a 14-point swing in win probability towards Pittsburgh.
4. With 15 seconds left, Andre Szmyt kicked a 56-yard field goal, a 22-point swing in win probability towards Cleveland.
Who won the matchups
DK Metcalf against Cleveland: Metcalf won it. 115 yards on 9 targets, against his usual 51.
T.J. Watt against Cleveland: Watt won it. 1 sack and 1 other QB hit, against his usual 1.5 sacks and hits a game.
Harold Fannin Jr. against Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh won it. Fannin held to 27 yards on 5 targets, against his usual 44.
Not much. A 53% lean landing is close to a coin flip going our way. The full record, including the misses, is on the Record page.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play 2026; NFL injury report, week 4; our published pre-kickoff run 2026-10-01T09-09-17Z_automation. Every number here comes straight from our pipeline.