This looks like a close contest, but we give a slight edge to KC. KC have been hot lately, winning 3 of their last 3. LV have been rolling at home, winning 3 of their last 3.

Matchups to watch

How each player gets his production, set against how this opponent has defended it over their last 17 games. After the game we grade who won each one.

Rashee Rice · against LV

Best way in: short throws

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

75%

Intermediate

15%

Deep (20+)

9%

Left side

38%

Middle

18%

Right side

44%

How LV defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

25th

Intermediate

24th

Deep (20+)

2nd

Left side

16th

Middle

20th

Right side

19th

Yards after catch allowed

9th

Sack rate forced

14th

The read

1. Las Vegas rank 25th against short throws, which make up 75% of Rice's targets.
2. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Brock Bowers · against KC

Best way in: deep balls

Profile

Where his targets come from

Share of his targets. The white tick is the league average.

Short (under 10)

74%

Intermediate

18%

Deep (20+)

8%

Left side

36%

Middle

28%

Right side

36%

How KC defend it

Ranked of 32, last 17 games. Green is a weakness to attack.

Short (under 10)

10th

Intermediate

9th

Deep (20+)

19th

Left side

8th

Middle

16th

Right side

8th

Yards after catch allowed

25th

Sack rate forced

25th

The read

1. Kansas City rank 19th against deep balls, which make up 8% of Bowers's targets.
2. Contested catches aren't his edge this week: he's 11th percentile for separation and 34th for hands, and Jaylen Watson, Nohl Williams, Trent McDuffie and Kristian Fulton all allow fewer yards per target than the average corner (7.4).
3. Free data doesn't show who covers whom on each snap, so this is the defence's profile, not a confirmed one-on-one.

Unit by unit

Each unit ranked against all 32 teams on 2026 play-by-play through week 3. Longer bar is better; a gold rank marks the side with the edge.

When the Chiefs have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

KC offence

LV defence

OverallEPA per play

4th

2nd

PassingEPA per dropback

6th

1st

RushingEPA per carry

2nd

4th

Third downconversion rate

7th

17th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

5th

3rd

Biggest gap: third down, where the Chiefs offence has a 10-place edge.

When the Raiders have the balloffence against defence, rank of 32 (1st is best)

LV offence

KC defence

OverallEPA per play

17th

6th

PassingEPA per dropback

12th

5th

RushingEPA per carry

25th

15th

Third downconversion rate

11th

10th

Pass protectionsack rate: allowed vs forced

9th

26th

Biggest gap: pass protection, where the Raiders offence has a 17-place edge.

Only 3 weeks of data so far: treat ranks as a direction, not a verdict.

Form and history

Chiefs this season

W31-10wk 1 vs DENW33-30wk 2 vs INDW24-10wk 3 at MIA

Raiders this season

W27-13wk 1 vs MIAW26-14wk 2 at LACW35-27wk 3 at NO

Last 5 meetingsKC 3 · LV 2

12-14KC at LV
2026-01

0-31LV at KC
2025-10

17-19LV at KC
2024-11

27-20KC at LV
2024-10

20-14LV at KC
2023-12

Injury report

Chiefsmodel impact 0.0

Jimmy HolidayWR	IR
Jeff CaldwellWR · Knee	IR
John Michael GyllenborgTE · Knee	IR
Ethan DownsDE · Knee - ACL	IR
Cooper McDonaldLB · Knee	IR
Omarr Norman-LottDT · Knee - ACL	PUP
Josh SimmonsOL · Back	Questionable
Chamarri ConnerDB · Knee	Questionable
Joe ForsonWR	NA

Raidersmodel impact 0.0

Corey RuckerWR	IR
Jack BechWR · Forearm	IR
Dont'e ThorntonWR	IR
Chris CollierRB	IR
Carter RunyonTE	IR
Chigozie AnusiemCB · Knee	IR
Keyron CrawfordDE · Ankle	IR
Brennan JacksonDE	IR
Justin PickettG	IR
Aidan O'ConnellQB · Personal	Questionable
Justin ShorterWR	Questionable
Jackson Powers-JohnsonOL · Groin	Questionable

Player props

Every posted line with the market's view and each player's last ten games against it.

Player props for this game haven't been posted by the books yet. They usually land Thursday to Saturday.

The betting view

Posted odds, the same odds with the bookmaker's margin removed, and where the model disagrees.

Read this before you bet: picking winners is not beating the price. At posted odds our 2025 flat-bet ROI was −6.9%. Use the model as one view of the game, not a tip.