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12Van Jefferson
Washington Commanders#126 yrs expFlorida; Mississippi73 · 197 lbElite hands, weak separation
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified wide receiver over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
69: situation-dependent
One number for how well Jefferson has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified wide receiver; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 46 (#109 of 121).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Receiving yards over 13.5
Receptions over 1.5
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Air yds | EPA | Over 13.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 9 |  LA | 7 | 5 | 58 | 1 | 86 | +3.7 | Yes |
| 26 wk 8 |  PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -0.7 | No |
| 25 wk 17 |  NO | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 | 40 | +3.8 | Yes |
| 25 wk 16 |  KC | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 20 | +2.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 15 |  SF | 5 | 1 | 43 | 0 | 118 | +0.9 | Yes |
| 25 wk 14 |  CLE | 4 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 31 | -0.9 | Yes |
| 25 wk 13 |  JAX | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 34 | -0.5 | Yes |
| 25 wk 12 |  SEA | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 5 | +2.6 | No |
| 25 wk 11 |  HOU | 7 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 63 | -1.4 | Yes |
| 25 wk 9 |  LAC | 4 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 82 | -0.2 | Yes |
| 25 wk 8 |  IND | 8 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 82 | -6.7 | No |
| 25 wk 7 |  NE | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 15 | +3.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 6 |  LV | 6 | 4 | 75 | 0 | 118 | +3.5 | Yes |
| 25 wk 4 | HOU | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5 | +0.2 | No |
| 25 wk 3 | IND | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | +0.2 | No |
| 25 wk 2 | LA | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 9 | +1.3 | No |
| 24 wk 18 |  CIN | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 21 | -0.9 | Yes |