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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15ATLGB70%Sun 18:00CAR64%CLESun 18:00CIN55%PITSun 18:00HOUIND53%Sun 18:00KC59%MIASun 18:00LACBUF83%Sun 18:00NEJAX69%Sun 18:00NYJDET53%Sun 18:00SEA71%WASSun 18:00TEN53%NYGSun 21:05ARISF67%Sun 21:05MIN52%TBSun 21:25BALDAL54%Sun 21:25LVNO57%Mon 01:20LA65%DENTue 01:15PHI52%CHI
Breece Hall20
Jets · RB

Breece Hall

New York Jets#204 yrs expIowa State71 · 220 lb
81Form
91Established
High-end starter#25 of 80 running backsBelow his usual: 10 under his last three seasons
Games17last 17
Carries26215.4 a game
Rush yards10894.2 a carry
Rec yards391
Rush TDs5
Skill profile · last 17 games · vs 80 running backs

Best at workload, weak after contact

Each axis is a percentile against every qualified running back over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).

Beating expectation: 62th percentileAfter contact: 32th percentileElusiveness: 46th percentileExplosiveness: 58th percentileReceiving role: 73th percentileWorkload: 87th percentileBeating expectation62ndAfter contact32ndElusiveness46thExplosiveness58thReceiving role73rdWorkload87th
HallPosition averageElite, 90th
Beating expectationrush yards over expected per carry
+0.44 yd62nd pct
After contactBelow avgyards after contact per carry
1.73 yd32nd pct
Elusivenessbroken tackles per touch
0.05046th pct
Explosivenessshare of runs of 10+ yards
9.9%58th pct
Receiving roleAbove avgshare of team targets
10.2%73rd pct
WorkloadAbove avgshare of offensive snaps
64%87th pct
F&D score · current form, last 17 games

81: high-end starter

One number for how well Hall has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified running back; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 91 (#10 of 69).

Contributionthe skill profile, efficiency-weighted
60
Consistencyhow steady game to game
65
Holds up vs good Doutput against the tougher half
50
Trend, last 6 gamesSteady
Schedule facedAverage

Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.

Props · this week

This week's lines against his last 17

Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.

This week · draftkings

Receiving yards over 21.5

Cleared6/17
Market says50%
Price1.89
line 21.5931304201414426758014918166317 games agolatest
This week · draftkings

Receptions over 3.5

Cleared5/17
Market says42%
Price2.22
line 3.52454022124202222517 games agolatest
This week · draftkings

Rushing yards over 56.5

Cleared9/17
Market says50%
Price1.88
line 56.52921811135938133835844684323541111022917 games agolatest
Floor and ceiling

How his games are spread

0–9 yds: 0 games010–19 yds: 0 games20–29 yds: 4 games2030–39 yds: 1 games40–49 yds: 2 games4050–59 yds: 3 games60–69 yds: 1 games6070–79 yds: 0 games80–89 yds: 2 games8090–99 yds: 0 games100–109 yds: 1 games100110–119 yds: 2 games120–129 yds: 0 games120130–139 yds: 1 games
12/17games with 40+ yds
7/17games with 60+ yds
6/17games with 80+ yds
4/17games with 100+ yds
Role

Game by game

avg 17.8 25 wk 2: 1225 wk 3: 1325 wk 4: 1925 wk 5: 1825 wk 6: 2225 wk 7: 1325 wk 8: 2025 wk 10: 2225 wk 11: 1625 wk 12: 2025 wk 13: 2125 wk 14: 1425 wk 15: 1425 wk 16: 1825 wk 17: 1626 wk 1: 2426 wk 2: 2125 wk 226 wk 2
Game log · last 17

Every game

GameOpponentCarRush ydsTDTgtRecRec ydsOver 21.5
26 wk 2GB162905563Yes
26 wk 1TEN2210212216No
25 wk 17NE1411113218No
25 wk 16NO16540329No
25 wk 15JAX122302214No
25 wk 14MIA14430100No
25 wk 13ATL19681228No
25 wk 12BAL164404475Yes
25 wk 11NE14580226No
25 wk 10CLE218301142Yes
25 wk 8CIN1813323214No
25 wk 7CAR113803214No
25 wk 6DEN22590000No
25 wk 5DAL1411305442Yes
25 wk 4MIA148106530Yes
25 wk 3TB92106431Yes
25 wk 2BUF10290329No