NYG
NE
CAR
NO
CLE
JAX
TEN
ATL
MIN
GB
LA
ARI
SF
PIT
CIN
BAL
15Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs#159 yrs expTexas Tech74 · 225 lbBest at efficiency, weak aggression
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified quarterback over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
85: high-end starter
One number for how well Mahomes has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified quarterback; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 86 (#11 of 44).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Passing TDs over 1.5
Passing yards over 239.5
Rushing yards over 10.5
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | Rush yds | EPA | Over 239.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 9 |  NYJ | 23 | 31 | 242 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | +7.5 | Yes |
| 26 wk 8 |  DEN | 30 | 41 | 321 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | +10.8 | Yes |
| 26 wk 7 |  SEA | 19 | 33 | 165 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | -6.0 | No |
| 26 wk 6 |  LAC | 23 | 30 | 272 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | +2.8 | Yes |
| 26 wk 4 |  LV | 15 | 30 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1.7 | No |
| 26 wk 3 |  MIA | 20 | 24 | 246 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +12.9 | Yes |
| 26 wk 2 |  IND | 32 | 47 | 382 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | +13.4 | Yes |
| 26 wk 1 | DEN | 15 | 27 | 184 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 23 | -2.3 | No |
| 25 wk 15 | LAC | 16 | 28 | 189 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | -3.6 | No |
| 25 wk 14 |  HOU | 14 | 33 | 160 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 59 | -22.3 | No |
| 25 wk 13 |  DAL | 23 | 34 | 261 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 30 | +14.2 | Yes |
| 25 wk 12 | IND | 29 | 46 | 352 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 30 | +8.5 | Yes |
| 25 wk 11 | DEN | 29 | 45 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +1.2 | Yes |
| 25 wk 9 |  BUF | 15 | 34 | 250 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -1.7 | Yes |
| 25 wk 8 |  WAS | 25 | 34 | 299 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 30 | +13.7 | Yes |
| 25 wk 7 | LV | 26 | 35 | 286 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 28 | +19.3 | Yes |
| 25 wk 6 |  DET | 22 | 30 | 257 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 32 | +15.6 | Yes |