NYG
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83Noah Gray
Kansas City Chiefs#835 yrs expDuke75 · 240 lbElite separation, weak hands
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified tight end over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
79: quality starter
One number for how well Gray has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified tight end; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 69 (#33 of 62).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Receiving yards over 11.5
Receptions over 1.5
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Air yds | EPA | Over 11.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 9 |  NYJ | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4 | +1.2 | No |
| 26 wk 8 |  DEN | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 6 | +2.9 | Yes |
| 26 wk 7 |  SEA | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 29 | +3.5 | Yes |
| 26 wk 6 |  LAC | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 17 | +2.7 | Yes |
| 26 wk 4 |  LV | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 13 | -0.7 | Yes |
| 26 wk 3 |  MIA | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 22 | +2.3 | Yes |
| 26 wk 2 |  IND | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -0.8 | No |
| 26 wk 1 | DEN | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5 | +0.4 | No |
| 25 wk 18 | LV | 5 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 25 | +0.5 | Yes |
| 25 wk 17 | DEN | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | No |
| 25 wk 16 |  TEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | No |
| 25 wk 14 |  HOU | 3 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 17 | -2.2 | Yes |
| 25 wk 12 | IND | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 36 | +0.0 | Yes |
| 25 wk 11 | DEN | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 14 | +0.0 | No |
| 25 wk 9 |  BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | -0.8 | No |
| 25 wk 8 |  WAS | 4 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 33 | -0.7 | Yes |
| 25 wk 7 | LV | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 13 | +2.1 | Yes |