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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15SEA53%DENSun 14:30HOUJAX64%Sun 18:00BAL69%CLESun 18:00CAR57%PHISun 18:00CHI56%ATLSun 18:00NONYG60%Sun 18:00NYJNE78%Sun 18:00PITTB50%Sun 18:00TENIND70%Sun 21:05ARILA69%Sun 21:25BUF70%LVSun 21:25LACKC85%Mon 01:20DAL53%GBTue 01:15WASSF85%
Dalton Kincaid86
Bills · TE

Dalton Kincaid

Buffalo Bills#863 yrs expUtah; Univ of California-San Diego75 · 246 lb
99Form
91Established
Elite creator#1 of 74 tight ends
Games17last 17
Targets704.1 a game
Catches5579% caught
Yards84850 a game
TDs6
Skill profile · last 17 games · vs 74 tight ends

Elite efficiency, less so separation

Each axis is a percentile against every qualified tight end over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).

Volume: 68th percentileDepth: 98th percentileSeparation: 54th percentileAfter the catch: 89th percentileHands: 79th percentileEfficiency: 99th percentileVolume68thDepth98thSeparation54thAfter the catch89thHands79thEfficiency99th
KincaidPosition averageElite, 90th
VolumeAbove avgshare of team targets
15.2%68th pct
DepthEliteavg depth of target
10.3 yd98th pct
Separationyards of separation at the catch
3.50 yd54th pct
After the catchAbove avgYAC over expected per catch
+1.7 yd89th pct
HandsAbove avgdrop rate
1.4% drops79th pct
EfficiencyEliteEPA per target
+0.7399th pct
F&D score · current form, last 17 games

99: elite creator

One number for how well Kincaid has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified tight end; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 91 (#9 of 62).

Contributionthe skill profile, efficiency-weighted
83
Consistencyhow steady game to game
95
Holds up vs good Doutput against the tougher half
72
Trend, last 6 gamesCooling
Schedule facedSoft

Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.

Floor and ceiling

How his games are spread

0–9 yds: 3 games010–19 yds: 0 games20–29 yds: 2 games2030–39 yds: 4 games40–49 yds: 3 games4050–59 yds: 0 games60–69 yds: 1 games6070–79 yds: 0 games80–89 yds: 0 games8090–99 yds: 1 games100–109 yds: 2 games100110–119 yds: 0 games120–129 yds: 0 games120130–139 yds: 1 games
12/17games with 30+ yds
5/17games with 50+ yds
4/17games with 70+ yds
4/17games with 90+ yds
Role

Game by game

avg 4.1 targets25 wk 1: 425 wk 2: 625 wk 3: 625 wk 4: 225 wk 5: 625 wk 8: 325 wk 9: 625 wk 10: 325 wk 14: 525 wk 15: 425 wk 16: 125 wk 18: 326 wk 1: 626 wk 2: 826 wk 3: 326 wk 4: 226 wk 5: 225 wk 126 wk 5
Game log · last 17

Every game

GameOpponentTgtRecYdsTDAir ydsEPA
26 wk 5LA217017+0.2
26 wk 4NE217021-1.4
26 wk 3LAC3238036-1.7
26 wk 2DET8795184+7.2
26 wk 1HOU65130098+7.6
25 wk 18NYJ3348031+2.4
25 wk 16CLE100019-0.5
25 wk 15NE4334050+1.6
25 wk 14CIN5441121+3.7
25 wk 10MIA3237041+2.0
25 wk 9KC66101148+8.6
25 wk 8CAR3123033+1.5
25 wk 5NE66108075+10.2
25 wk 4NO2128137+2.5
25 wk 3MIA6566141+5.0
25 wk 2NYJ6437029-0.6
25 wk 1BAL4448140+2.9