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86Dalton Kincaid
Buffalo Bills#863 yrs expUtah; Univ of California-San Diego75 · 246 lbElite efficiency, less so separation
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified tight end over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
99: elite creator
One number for how well Kincaid has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified tight end; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 91 (#9 of 62).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Receiving yards over 41.5
Receptions over 3.5
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Air yds | EPA | Over 41.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 9 |  MIN | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 3 | +3.2 | No |
| 26 wk 8 |  BAL | 6 | 4 | 86 | 1 | 83 | +6.4 | Yes |
| 26 wk 6 |  LV | 8 | 7 | 38 | 0 | 15 | -1.1 | No |
| 26 wk 5 |  LA | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 17 | +0.2 | No |
| 26 wk 4 |  NE | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 21 | -1.4 | No |
| 26 wk 3 |  LAC | 3 | 2 | 38 | 0 | 36 | -1.7 | No |
| 26 wk 2 |  DET | 8 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 84 | +7.2 | Yes |
| 26 wk 1 |  HOU | 6 | 5 | 130 | 0 | 98 | +7.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 18 |  NYJ | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 31 | +2.4 | Yes |
| 25 wk 16 |  CLE | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | -0.5 | No |
| 25 wk 15 | NE | 4 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 50 | +1.6 | No |
| 25 wk 14 |  CIN | 5 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 21 | +3.7 | No |
| 25 wk 10 |  MIA | 3 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 41 | +2.0 | No |
| 25 wk 9 |  KC | 6 | 6 | 101 | 1 | 48 | +8.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 8 |  CAR | 3 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 33 | +1.5 | No |
| 25 wk 5 | NE | 6 | 6 | 108 | 0 | 75 | +10.2 | Yes |
| 25 wk 4 |  NO | 2 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 37 | +2.5 | No |