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14Courtland Sutton
Denver Broncos#148 yrs expSMU76 · 216 lbBest at volume, weak separation
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified wide receiver over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
45: below replacement
One number for how well Sutton has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified wide receiver; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 68 (#64 of 121).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Receiving yards over 31.5
Receptions over 3.5
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Air yds | EPA | Over 31.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 5 |  LAC | 3 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 24 | +0.7 | No |
| 26 wk 4 |  SF | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 98 | -2.5 | No |
| 26 wk 3 |  LA | 7 | 3 | 46 | 0 | 83 | -1.6 | Yes |
| 26 wk 2 |  JAX | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 31 | -2.5 | No |
| 26 wk 1 |  KC | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 40 | -4.8 | No |
| 25 wk 18 | LAC | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 9 | -2.6 | No |
| 25 wk 17 | KC | 10 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 107 | -1.1 | Yes |
| 25 wk 16 | JAX | 12 | 6 | 86 | 1 | 209 | +0.8 | Yes |
| 25 wk 15 |  GB | 10 | 7 | 113 | 1 | 136 | +8.3 | Yes |
| 25 wk 14 |  LV | 10 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 105 | +1.5 | Yes |
| 25 wk 13 |  WAS | 6 | 5 | 62 | 1 | 63 | +6.4 | Yes |
| 25 wk 11 | KC | 8 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 65 | +2.3 | Yes |
| 25 wk 10 | LV | 4 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 31 | +0.6 | No |
| 25 wk 9 |  HOU | 6 | 1 | 30 | 1 | 129 | -2.7 | No |
| 25 wk 8 |  DAL | 6 | 4 | 67 | 0 | 95 | +3.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 7 |  NYG | 10 | 6 | 87 | 0 | 107 | +0.7 | Yes |
| 25 wk 6 |  NYJ | 3 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 30 | -0.2 | No |