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4DFourth & Data
Fri 01:15SEA53%DENSun 14:30HOUJAX64%Sun 18:00BAL69%CLESun 18:00CAR57%PHISun 18:00CHI56%ATLSun 18:00NONYG60%Sun 18:00NYJNE78%Sun 18:00PITTB50%Sun 18:00TENIND70%Sun 21:05ARILA69%Sun 21:25BUF70%LVSun 21:25LACKC85%Mon 01:20DAL53%GBTue 01:15WASSF85%
Bijan Robinson7
Falcons · RB

Bijan Robinson

Atlanta Falcons#73 yrs expTexas71 · 214 lb
97Form
95Established
Elite creator#4 of 82 running backs
Games17last 17
Carries30618.0 a game
Rush yards15745.1 a carry
Rec yards634
Rush TDs9
Skill profile · last 17 games · vs 82 running backs

Elite receiving role, less so elusiveness

Each axis is a percentile against every qualified running back over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).

Beating expectation: 95th percentileAfter contact: 75th percentileElusiveness: 52th percentileExplosiveness: 84th percentileReceiving role: 98th percentileWorkload: 96th percentileBeating expectation95thAfter contact75thElusiveness52ndExplosiveness84thReceiving role98thWorkload96th
RobinsonPosition averageElite, 90th
Beating expectationEliterush yards over expected per carry
+1.03 yd95th pct
After contactAbove avgyards after contact per carry
2.12 yd75th pct
Elusivenessbroken tackles per touch
0.04752nd pct
ExplosivenessAbove avgshare of runs of 10+ yards
12.4%84th pct
Receiving roleEliteshare of team targets
20.0%98th pct
WorkloadEliteshare of offensive snaps
76%96th pct
F&D score · current form, last 17 games

97: elite creator

One number for how well Robinson has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified running back; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 95 (#6 of 69).

Contributionthe skill profile, efficiency-weighted
85
Consistencyhow steady game to game
5
Holds up vs good Doutput against the tougher half
54
Trend, last 6 gamesCooling
Schedule facedAverage

Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.

Props · this week

This week's lines against his last 17

Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.

This week · draftkings

Receiving yards over 28.5

Cleared10/17
Market says49%
Price1.92
line 28.552235043937518829234109091923217 games agolatest
This week · draftkings

Receptions over 3.5

Cleared9/17
Market says48%
Price1.96
line 3.56382425287538321417 games agolatest
This week · draftkings

Rushing yards over 89.5

Cleared6/17
Market says50%
Price1.90
line 89.540254684104701428693761953383721941458617 games agolatest
Floor and ceiling

How his games are spread

0–24 yds: 0 games025–49 yds: 4 games2550–74 yds: 2 games5075–99 yds: 6 games75100–124 yds: 1 games100125–149 yds: 2 games125150–174 yds: 0 games150175–199 yds: 2 games175
15/17games with 40+ yds
13/17games with 60+ yds
10/17games with 80+ yds
5/17games with 100+ yds
Role

Game by game

avg 22.3 25 wk 7: 2025 wk 8: 1225 wk 9: 2025 wk 10: 1925 wk 11: 2725 wk 12: 1625 wk 13: 2825 wk 14: 2225 wk 15: 2725 wk 16: 2325 wk 17: 2725 wk 18: 1826 wk 1: 2926 wk 2: 1926 wk 3: 3126 wk 4: 2026 wk 5: 2125 wk 726 wk 5
Game log · last 17

Every game

GameOpponentCarRush ydsTDTgtRecRec ydsOver 28.5
26 wk 5BAL178607432Yes
26 wk 4NO191452212No
26 wk 3GB2919422219No
26 wk 2CAR16720439No
26 wk 1PIT2183010890Yes
25 wk 18NO153303310No
25 wk 17LA2219518534Yes
25 wk 16ARI1676011792Yes
25 wk 15TB1993111882Yes
25 wk 14SEA20860228No
25 wk 13NYJ2314217551Yes
25 wk 12NO147002237Yes
25 wk 11CAR2310425439Yes
25 wk 10IND17840224No
25 wk 9NE1246010850Yes
25 wk 8MIA92503323No
25 wk 7SF144008652Yes