
J.J. McCarthy
Elite aggression, weak sack avoidance
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified quarterback over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
46: below replacement
One number for how well McCarthy has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified quarterback; 99 is the best. The three-season score needs more games before it means anything.
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 14
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Passing TDs over 1.5
Passing yards over 210.5
Rushing yards over 18.5
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | Rush yds | EPA | Over 210.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 9 | 12 | 19 | 127 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | -1.9 | No | |
| 26 wk 7 | 20 | 28 | 252 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +5.6 | Yes | |
| 26 wk 6 | 11 | 21 | 243 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 26 | +5.0 | Yes | |
| 26 wk 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | – | No | |
| 25 wk 18 | 14 | 23 | 182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | +7.6 | No | |
| 25 wk 16 | 9 | 14 | 108 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | -8.3 | No | |
| 25 wk 15 | 15 | 24 | 250 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | +12.0 | Yes | |
| 25 wk 14 | 16 | 23 | 163 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 19 | +9.3 | No | |
| 25 wk 12 | 12 | 19 | 87 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -16.5 | No | |
| 25 wk 11 | 16 | 32 | 150 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -13.1 | No | |
| 25 wk 10 | 20 | 42 | 248 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 48 | -9.9 | Yes | |
| 25 wk 9 | 14 | 25 | 143 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | -7.4 | No | |
| 25 wk 2 | 11 | 21 | 158 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 25 | -18.0 | No | |
| 25 wk 1 | 13 | 20 | 143 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 25 | -9.8 | No |