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4Jahan Dotson
Atlanta Falcons#44 yrs expPenn State71 · 182 lbElite hands, weak efficiency
Each axis is a percentile against every qualified wide receiver over the same window. The dashed white shape is the position average; the gold ring marks elite (90th percentile).
50: replacement level
One number for how well Dotson has actually played lately, not a talent rating. 70% is the skill profile, weighted towards efficiency; the rest is how steady his games are and whether he still produces against the better defences. Ranked against every qualified wide receiver; 99 is the best. Over the last three seasons he scores 41 (#119 of 121).
Trend and schedule are shown for context but kept out of the number: over a handful of games they're mostly noise.
This week's lines against his last 17
Each bar is a game; green cleared the line. "Market says" is the bookmaker's price with the margin taken out. Our own prop model is switched off until it passes a public audit, so this is history and the market, not a tip.
Receiving yards over 18.5
Receptions over 1.5
How his games are spread
Game by game
Every game
| Game | Opponent | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Air yds | EPA | Over 18.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 wk 2 |  CAR | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 48 | -6.0 | No |
| 26 wk 1 |  PIT | 3 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 52 | -4.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 18 |  WAS | 8 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 139 | -4.6 | Yes |
| 25 wk 17 |  BUF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 | -0.6 | No |
| 25 wk 16 | WAS | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 13 | -0.3 | No |
| 25 wk 14 |  LAC | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 44 | -6.4 | No |
| 25 wk 13 |  CHI | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 32 | -0.5 | No |
| 25 wk 12 |  DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -1.7 | No |
| 25 wk 11 |  DET | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 | 38 | +4.4 | Yes |
| 25 wk 10 |  GB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1.5 | No |
| 25 wk 8 |  NYG | 2 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 50 | +3.8 | Yes |
| 25 wk 6 | NYG | 2 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 18 | -7.6 | No |
| 25 wk 5 |  DEN | 3 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 92 | -0.1 | Yes |
| 25 wk 4 |  TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | No |
| 25 wk 3 |  LA | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 37 | -1.6 | No |
| 25 wk 2 |  KC | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -6 | -0.0 | No |
| 25 wk 1 | DAL | 3 | 3 | 59 | 0 | 48 | +1.7 | Yes |